NASCAR: Could Kevin Harvick really miss the playoffs?

Still without a win, Kevin Harvick has not locked himself into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and there are only two regular season races remaining.

Two races remain on the 26-race 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and the 2020 season’s winningest driver — in fact, the winningest driver in any single season since 2008 — is still without a victory this year.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick hasn’t won a race since he secured his ninth win of the 2020 season in the round of 16 finale at Bristol Motor Speedway. He is 0 for 31 since then.

He has still had a decent 2021 season thus far, sitting in ninth place in the point standings, but with two races remaining in the regular season, he has not yet clinched a playoff berth.

Could the 2014 champion really miss the 2021 playoffs?

More from NASCAR Cup Series

• NASCAR Cup Series: New team set to compete in 2024
• NASCAR: Surprising name continuously linked to new seat
• NASCAR driver at risk of missing the Daytona 500?
• NASCAR set for rare appearance last seen 13 years ago
• NASCAR team adds third car, names driver for 2024 Daytona 500

The 2021 season has seen 14 different winners, and Harvick ranks second in the point standings among winless drivers behind Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin.

However, he sits in 15th place, not 16th, in the 16-driver playoff picture since the most recent of those 14 winners, Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger, is a full-time Xfinity Series driver who does not compete for Cup Series points and is therefore not eligible for the playoffs.

But Harvick still isn’t 100% safe. It’s not a guarantee, but he is pretty much a lock to finish the regular season as the second highest winless driver.

He cannot surpass Hamlin in the point standings (trails by 198 points), and he is 67 points ahead of Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick with a maximum of 110 points remaining for any non-winning driver over the regular season’s final two races (55 in each). He is 95 points ahead of Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon.

So he really isn’t in a points battle; he simply needs to avoid two different winners (other than Hamlin) emerging in these two races.

If two new non-Hamlin winners emerge, Harvick is out, plain and simple.

Fortunately, one of the these two races is set to be contested at Michigan International Speedway, where Harvick has won four of the last five races, including both last year. He hasn’t had a winless season at the track since 2017. The odds of a new winner emerging there are low.

The regular season finale, however, is set to be contested at Daytona International Speedway, and this particular track has a tendency to produce new winners.

The last two race winners at the track had zero career wins before winning there, and the winner of the track’s summer race has not won a non-superspeedway race in the same season since 2016.

So could Harvick miss the playoffs? Yes, but it is highly unlikely. As long as a new winner doesn’t emerge at Michigan International Speedway, he should be locked in (assuming Reddick and Dillon don’t move to within 54 points).

However, if one does, it is going to come down to the final lap of the regular season, and his series-high streak of 11 consecutive playoff seasons could be in serious jeopardy.