NASCAR: The 3 ways that Kevin Harvick can miss the playoffs
By Asher Fair
Kevin Harvick is not locked into the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but there are only three ways that he can potentially not make it.
With two races remaining in the 26-race 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick is still not locked into the four-round, 10-race playoffs — just one season after winning a series-high nine races.
A total of 13 drivers have locked themselves into this year’s postseason by winning at least one race, and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin has locked himself in by guaranteeing that, at worst, he will finish the regular season as the highest ranking winless driver in the point standings.
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There are a maximum of 55 points on the table for a non-winner in each race, leaving 110 on the table throughout the remainder of the regular season.
Hamlin sits 198 points ahead of the next winless driver, who happens to be Harvick.
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So with everything considered, Harvick, who sits in ninth place in the point standings, sits in 15th out of 16 drivers currently in the playoff picture, and he is one of only two who are not locked into the playoffs. The other one is Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick in 16th.
The final two races of the regular season are scheduled to take place on Sunday, August 22 at Michigan International Speedway and on Saturday, August 28 at Daytona International Speedway, and there are three ways by which Harvick can miss the postseason in these races.
Scenario #1 – Two new winners
If there are two new winners, other than Hamlin, who emerge in the regular season’s final two races, Harvick cannot get into the playoffs. It’s that simple. He would drop out of the top 16, as the playoff picture would feature the 15 different winners, plus Hamlin.
Scenario #2 – One new winner
This scenario actually has two sub-scenarios. Harvick sits 67 points ahead of Reddick and 95 points ahead of Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon in the point standings. Both of those two drivers could potentially pass Harvick in the point standings.
If one of them passes him in the standings and another winner (other than Hamlin and whomever passes him) emerges, he is out.
Scenario #3 – Passed by both
And finally, the third scenario is a highly unlikely one. If he is passed by both Reddick and Dillon in the point standings, he would not make the playoffs. You might ask: “What if he wins?” Can’t happen. Mathematically speaking, if he wins, he won’t be passed. So that’s a non-issue.
Kevin Harvick betting odds
But if anything other than what is described in any of these scenarios transpires, Harvick is locked into the playoffs. And that remains the overwhelmingly likely option.
Harvick may be winless in 2021, but he has won the last three and four of the last five races at Michigan International Speedway. He is listed by WynnBET as the fifth favorite to win Sunday’s race at +900.
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He trails only Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson (+290) and Chase Elliott (+750) and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch (+700) and Martin Truex Jr. (+750).
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