NASCAR: Who is actually in a ‘win and in’ scenario?

Many drivers competing in this Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway need to win to get into the playoffs. But not all are in with a win.

It all comes down to this Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race under the lights at Daytona International Speedway, not just to crown the 2021 regular season champion but to determine which driver will be the 16th and final driver to qualify for the four-round, 10-race playoffs.

Compared to last year, when there were still three playoff spots open entering the regular season finale, this year’s playoff picture entering the 26th and final race of the regular season is far more simple.

A total of 13 drivers are locked into the playoffs because of the fact that they have won at least one race already this season. Two others are locked in on points, as even with a surprise 14th winner, they cannot drop below the playoff cut line.

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There are two other drivers who can possibly secure the final playoff spot on points. Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick currently occupies that 16th spot, and he sits 25 points ahead of teammate Austin Dillon.

The next closest driver on points is Wood Brothers Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto, and he trails Reddick by 120. There are only a maximum of 55 points on the table for a non-winner in each race.

That raises the question: how many drivers are actually in “win and in” (or “win or out”) situations heading into this Saturday night’s 160-lap Coke Zero Sugar 400 around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked oval in Daytona Beach, Florida?

Obviously Reddick is in with a win. Dillon and DiBenedetto would be as well. But behind DiBenedetto, that number is limited since a “win and in” scenario only applies to drivers who finish the regular season in the top 30 in the point standings.

Front Row Motorsports rookie Anthony Alfredo currently occupies 30th place in the point standings. He also happens to be locked into it; he sits 70 points behind Spire Motorsports’ Corey LaJoie, who was granted a playoff waiver after missing this past Sunday’s race at Michigan International Speedway, in 29th, and 101 points ahead of Rick Ware Racing’s Josh Bilicki in 31st.

So because nobody from outside the top 30 can get into it, we know the 30 drivers who will finish the regular season in the top 30 in the point standings.

Therefore, with 15 drivers locked into the playoffs, 15 can lock themselves in with a win, and 13 of those drivers absolutely need to win to get in.

Here’s the list.

• Tyler Reddick, Richard Childress Racing, #8 Chevrolet (can get in on points)
• Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, #3 Chevrolet (can get in on points)
• Matt DiBenedetto, Wood Brothers Racing, #21 Ford (MUST WIN)
• Chris Buescher, Roush Fenway Racing, #17 Ford (MUST WIN)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing, #47 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Ross Chastain, Chip Ganassi Racing, #42 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing, #23 Toyota (MUST WIN)
• Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, #14 Ford (MUST WIN)
• Erik Jones, Richard Petty Motorsports, #43 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing Team, #99 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Ryan Newman, Roush Fenway Racing, #6 Ford (MUST WIN)
• Ryan Preece, JTG Daugherty Racing, #37 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Cole Custer, Stewart-Haas Racing, #41 Ford (MUST WIN)
• Corey LaJoie, Spire Motorsports, #7 Chevrolet (MUST WIN)
• Anthony Alfredo, Front Row Motorsports, #38 Ford (MUST WIN)

As for Bilicki and everybody else lower than him, they are already eliminated and a win would not net them the 16th and final playoff spot.

NBC is set to broadcast the Coke Zero Sugar 400 live from Daytona International Speedway beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET this evening. Make sure to start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not yet done so!