NASCAR: Why the standings and playoff picture don’t match

The regular season-ending NASCAR Cup Series point standings and the opening playoff picture don’t match, and here’s the reason why.

Following the 26-race 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the stage is set for the four-round, 10-race playoffs.

The playoffs are scheduled to begin this Sunday at Darlington Raceway and end in early November at Phoenix Raceway.

Once again, there are 16 drivers who are set to vie for the championship in this year’s playoffs, including the 13 points eligible regular season race winners.

But to start the playoffs, the standings look a bit different than the actual point standings. Why is this the case?

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This article is more geared to newer fans or fans who don’t fully grasp the concept of the current playoff format. So while this may seem like common sense to you, there are others out there who may need a refresher or a brief “Playoffs 101” introduction to fully grasp the concept.

Point standings are simple. They’re based on points and points alone: points from stage finishes, and points from race finishes. Add them all up, and at the end of the regular season, you have your regular season point totals. It’s basic addition, and it’s what many old-school fans still prefer from the pre-2004 playoff era.

Here is a list of how many regular season points each of the 16 playoff drivers scored this year.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Kyle Larson – 1027 (0)
2 – Denny Hamlin – 1009 (-18)
3 – Chase Elliott – 859 (-168)
4 – Kyle Busch – 852 (-175)
5 – William Byron – 842 (-185)
6 – Ryan Blaney – 832 (-195)
7 – Martin Truex Jr. – 803 (-224)
8 – Joey Logano – 799 (-228)
9 – Kevin Harvick – 778 (-249)
10 – Brad Keselowski – 733 (-294)
11 – Tyler Reddick – 716 (-311)
12 – Alex Bowman – 704 (-323)
14 – Kurt Busch – 668 (-359)
15 – Christopher Bell – 612 (-415)
21 – Michael McDowell – 498 (-529)
23 – Aric Almirola – 459 (-568)

The playoff picture is a bit more complicated. All 16 drivers who lock into the playoffs have their point totals reset to 2,000 points to start the playoffs. All 12 drivers who qualify for the round of 12 have their point totals reset to 3,000 to start the round of 12, and all eight drivers who qualify for the round of 8 have their point totals reset to 4,000 to start the round of 8.

But at the start of each round of the playoffs (except for the Championship 4), more points are added to those totals based on three things: stage wins, race wins, and regular season points finishing position.

One point is added for each stage win, and five points are added for each race win. Additional points are added based on regular season points finish for the top 10 drivers, as follows:

• 1st place – 15 points
• 2nd place – 10 points
• 3rd place – 8 points
• 4th place – 7 points
• 5th place – 6 points
• 6th place – 5 points
• 7th place – 4 points
• 8th place – 3 points
• 9th place – 2 points
• 10th place – 1 point

It is also worth noting that the four Championship 4 drivers start the Championship 4 with 5,000 points, though the Championship 4 is simple: the highest finishing Championship 4 driver wins the championship. So playoff points are not factored into this round.

With all of these things factored in, take a look at the playoff picture to open up the round of 16, and note how different it looks when compared to the pure point standings to close out the regular season.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Kyle Larson – 2052 (0)
2 – Ryan Blaney – 2024 (-28)
2 – Martin Truex Jr. – 2024 (-28)
4 – Kyle Busch – 2022 (-30)
5 – Chase Elliott – 2021 (-31)
6 – Denny Hamlin – 2015 (-37)
6 – Alex Bowman – 2015 (-37)
8 – William Byron – 2014 (-38)
9 – Joey Logano – 2013 (-39)
10 – Kurt Busch – 2008 (-44)
10 – Brad Keselowski – 2008 (-44)
12 – Michael McDowell – 2005 (-47)
12 – Christopher Bell – 2005 (-47)
12 – Aric Almirola – 2005 (-47)
15 – Tyler Reddick – 2003 (-49)
16 – Kevin Harvick – 2002 (-50)

On several occasions — 10 in the first 17 seasons of the playoffs, in fact — we have seen the champion be a driver other than the driver who scored the most pure points throughout the 36-race season.

Larson is listed by WynnBET as the favorite to win this year’s championship with odds of +260. He is the only driver who has odds shorter than +650.

Make your pick now on WynnBET.

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are scheduled to get underway on Sunday, September 5 with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. This race is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET. If you have not yet started your free trial of FuboTV, now would be a great time to do so!