Formula 1: ‘Confusing’ change actually makes perfect sense

Max Verstappen is a heavier favorite to win the 2021 Formula 1 world championship now than he was before losing his points lead to Lewis Hamilton. The reason why, however, makes perfect sense.

Entering the Russian Grand Prix weekend at Sochi Autodrom, the distance between Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton atop the Formula 1 world championship driver standings was just five points, with Verstappen in the lead.

After each of the last five races, no more than eight points had separated the two title protagonists, with each leading by exactly eight points at some point during that span.

Prior to the 53-lap race around the 18-turn, 3.634-mile (5.848-kilometer) road course in Sochi, Krasnodar Krai, Russia, Verstappen was listed by WynnBET as the favorite to win the 2021 world championship with odds of -170 (bet $170 to win $100). Hamilton was listed as the second favorite at +100 (bet $100 to win $100).

Hamilton won the race and took the lead back from Verstappen in the standings.

And now Hamilton is listed as an even bigger underdog at +115, while Verstappen is listed as an even heavier favorite at -180.

Makes sense, right?

It may seem a bit confusing, but it actually makes a ton of sense, and for a number of different reasons — reasons that, if you think about it, make you question why the shift didn’t even go further in Verstappen’s direction.

Mercedes entered the weekend with seven wins in seven races at Sochi Autodrom, and even if it had been Valtteri Bottas out in front, there was never a question about who Mercedes would ensure was out front come lap 53 (see the “Valtteri, it’s James” race from 2018).

Additionally, Verstappen entered the weekend knowing that he would be taking a three-position grid penalty for the contact that took out both himself and Hamilton two weekends prior in the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

So Red Bull, knowing that they were at a Mercedes stronghold and that Verstappen had pretty much no chance of keeping his points lead, made the wise decision to fit a new Honda RA621H power unit in Verstappen’s RB16B, ensuring that he would start in 20th (last) place on the grid.

They were operating under the figurative assumption that when it rains, it pours.

And it literally rained and poured late in Sunday’s race.

Hamilton won, like pretty much everybody expected him to, but career win number 100 did not come easily for the seven-time and four-time reigning world champion.

It was McLaren’s Lando Norris who took the pole position and led the race until the final few laps when he opted not to pit for rain tires. But Hamilton and many others did, and that decision paid off, as Norris sadly discovered.

Among those many others? Verstappen. He was able to salvage a second place finish from a weekend during which a podium finish would have seemed like a dream scenario. Throughout the first 50 or so laps of the race, it seemed that he would finish around sixth.

Even prior to the weekend, when Hamilton looked to be in a good position to take the lead in the championship battle given everything that favored Mercedes and everything that was going against Red Bull, oddsmakers believed that the seven tracks on the 22-race calendar after Sochi Autodrom favor Red Bull and Verstappen as opposed to Mercedes and Hamilton.

And at Sochi Autodrom, a Mercedes stronghold, Hamilton was only able to make up seven points on Verstappen, which is far fewer than they expected when they listed these two drivers the way they did before this past weekend.

Hamilton won the race to score 25, and Verstappen put on a damage control clinic in wet conditions to score 18.

So despite the fact that the 23-year-old Dutchman saw a five-point lead turn into a two-point deficit, the fact that almost everybody thought it would be far worse is why he effectively boosted his championship chances with his performance.

Norris’s consolation was the fastest lap bonus point, adding a point to the six points he earned for finishing in seventh place and preventing either one of the two title contenders from scoring it.

The Turkish Grand Prix is the 16th race on the 2021 Formula 1 schedule, and it is set to be broadcast live on ESPN from Intercity Istanbul Park beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, October 10. If you have not begun your free trial of FuboTV, be sure to do so in time for this event!