NASCAR: Change made that should have been made weeks ago

With Kyle Larson having solidified a spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4, his odds to win the title finally improved.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson has been listed the betting favorite to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship on WynnBET since his win at Sonoma Raceway back in early June.

The driver of the #5 Chevrolet has solidified his status as the favorite by overcoming a deficit of more than 100 points to win the regular season championship and racking up a total of eight wins, twice as many as the next winningest driver at the sport’s top level this year.

But an interesting change was made to Larson’s odds after the round of 12 narrowed the field from 12 drivers to eight.

Larson entered the round of 12 with odds of +200 to win this year’s title. Despite winning the round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, making him one of only two drivers to win one race in each of the first two rounds, his odds were changed to +225 ahead of the round of 8.

How, exactly, do you explain that?

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You can’t. Even with four fewer championship contenders and a massive gap over not only the Championship 4 cut line but the second place driver entering the penultimate round, Larson saw his odds get worse after the round of 12.

Given the fact that he was seen as a Championship 4 lock by most, the fact that his implied chance to win the title was only slightly higher than 25% with these odds made this an attractive gamble.

Now a change has been made that should have been made weeks ago.

Larson did what many expected him to and won the round of 8 opener at Texas Motor Speedway to secure a spot in the Championship 4 for the first time in his career, and his odds improved from +225 to +150 as a result of it.

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With the 29-year-old Elk Grove, California native having been seen as a lock to get into the Championship 4, why did it take what everybody already saw coming for his odds to reflect that?

Did anybody really think he was going to fall behind four of the other seven contenders in a matter of three races with the gap he had?

Granted, even at +225, his odds were still much better than anybody else’s. But at this stage in the season, with only three drivers set to have a shot to beat him, +150 is more along the lines of what you’d expect.

Here is a full list of the odds for the eight remaining contenders.

• Kyle Larson: +150
• Denny Hamlin: +475
• Ryan Blaney: +500
• Kyle Busch: +650
• Chase Elliott: +750
• Martin Truex Jr.: +1100
• Brad Keselowksi: +1600
• Joey Logano: +2500

Bottom line, if you had any intention to bet on Larson, hopefully you did it before his Sunday victory when you could get pretty good odds. He is still the guy to beat and could well be worth it at +150, but +225 — especially considering it had been +200 three weeks prior — was a no-brainer while it lasted.

The second of three races in the round of 8 of the playoffs is scheduled to take place this Sunday, October 24 at Kansas Speedway. This race, the Hollywood Casino 400, is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. So be sure to start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not yet done so!