NASCAR: Kyle Larson and Phoenix Raceway is a lethal combination

Kyle Larson has locked up a spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4, and that could be bad news for the rest of the field.

With his series-leading third playoff win and series-leading eighth win of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway this past Sunday afternoon, Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson became the first of four drivers to lock up a spot in this year’s Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway.

Larson has won one race in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs in his first year as the driver of the #5 Chevrolet, and a win in the fourth and final round would make him the fourth first-time champion in the last five years.

The 29-year-old native of Elk Grove, California doesn’t know which three drivers he will need to stave off at the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) three Sundays from now to win the 2021 title, but no matter who those drivers are, Larson is in a pretty darn good position.

And that’s without factoring in the fact that the #5 team effectively have two extra weekends to prepare for their shot to win it all.

Larson may be one of only three (out of eight) remaining championship contenders who has never visited victory lane at Phoenix Raceway, and it has taken a win in the season finale to win the championship in all seven years of the Championship 4 format.

But that should be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons; the Larson/Phoenix Raceway combination is truly one that should strike fear into the hearts of every other contender.

For good reason, his odds to win the title on WynnBET went from +225 to +150 after he won at Texas Motor Speedway to secure his spot in the winner-take-all round.

Larson hasn’t had a bad race at Phoenix Raceway in years. In his last nine starts there, he has just two finishes outside of the top seven, and one came as a result of an engine failure. As far as venues where he hasn’t won, Phoenix Raceway needs to be considered among his best.

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With all due respect to Chip Ganassi Racing, the team for which he reeled off six top six finishes in a span of eight races at the track, including five top four results, Larson is in the best equipment he has ever had in his first year at Hendrick Motorsports. Eight of his 14 career wins have come in what is his eighth season in the series.

Larson finished in seventh place in the race at Phoenix Raceway back in March, and he pulled that off despite the fact that he and the #5 team shot themselves in the foot multiple times with pit road penalties. Oh, and he had to drop to the rear before the race as a result of a separate penalty.

That seventh is, at the absolute worst, a top three if you take away at least one of those penalties.

In his most recent “clean” race there, Larson finished in fourth place back in March 2020 in what turned out of be his final race at Chip Ganassi Racing.

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Teammate Chase Elliott entered last year’s Championship 4 without a win at Phoenix Raceway. Not only did he win the race to secure his first title, but he did it after starting from the rear due to a pre-race penalty — and he led the most laps in the process.

Interestingly, Hendrick Motorsports have a history of winning in this fashion in the Championship 4. Jimmie Johnson, the team’s most recent Championship 4 representative prior to Elliott last year, won the 2016 championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway after starting from the rear.

The Championship 4 is set to be broadcast live on NBC from Phoenix Raceway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 7. But before then, there are still two more races to determine the other three drivers in the Championship 4: the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on Sunday, October 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Network) and the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday, October 31 at 2:00 p.m. ET (NBC). Make sure to start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not yet done so!