Formula 1: Max Verstappen’s easiest path to the 2021 world title

Max Verstappen knows he can ill afford a mistake if he wants to win the 2021 Formula 1 world championship, but he does have the comfort of a 19-point lead.

After back-to-back victories in the United States Grand Prix and the Mexican Grand Prix, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen finds himself with a 19-point lead over Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the Formula 1 world championship standings with four races remaining on the 22-race 2021 schedule.

A mistake from this point forward would be quite detrimental to his chances of dethroning the four-time reigning and seven-time world champion, but with a 19-point lead, he is by no means in a position where he needs to win out just to have a shot.

Verstappen hasn’t clinched the tiebreaker over Hamilton quite yet (nine wins for Verstappen, five for Hamilton), but for all intents and purposes, this doesn’t matter; the only way by which Hamilton can possible secure the tiebreaker is by winning all four of the season’s final four races, and in this scenario, he would win the world championship regardless of what else happens.

For a complete rundown on why Verstappen “clinching” the tiebreaker is really just a formality, click here.

So for Verstappen to be passed by Hamilton, Hamilton needs to outscore him by at least 20 points.

Verstappen’s easiest way of preventing that? He can guarantee that this doesn’t happen with a single win and three runner-up finishes over the season’s final four races, provided Hamilton does not win or finish in second place in the sprint qualifying race for the Brazilian Grand Prix with Verstappen more than one spot behind.

If that happens, he has nothing else to worry about.

Let’s assume that Hamilton finishes in second place behind Verstappen once and beats him in the other three events. If Hamilton secures the point for running the fastest lap in each race, he would fall six points (25 to 19) further behind once and gain eight points (26 to 18) three times. This would put him one point behind Verstappen (two points away from winning the title).

So as long as Verstappen finishes within one spot of Hamilton in the sprint qualifying race for the Brazilian Grand Prix (3-2-1 points awarded to top three, respectively), he would stay ahead.

Verstappen is listed by WynnBET as the favorite to win the title at -475 ($475 bet wins $100, pays $575). Hamilton is listed as the underdog at +300 ($100 bet wins $300, pays $400).

Make your pick now on WynnBET.

The Brazilian Grand Prix is the next race on the schedule, and it is set to be broadcast live on ESPN2 from Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace beginning at 11:55 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 14. Be sure to start your free trial of FuboTV today!

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