Formula 1: The most consistent driver of 2021 will surprise you

Nikita Mazepin was statistically the most consistent driver of the 2021 Formula 1 season, barely edging world champion Max Verstappen.

Entering the 2021 Formula 1 season, if you had Haas rookie Nikita Mazepin edging out Red Bull driver and newly crowned world champion Max Verstappen in any statistical category, you would have been labeled quite crazy.

But that’s exactly what he did, and perhaps the most surprising aspect of it is the statistic in which he did it.

Consistency.

There is one caveat: not included in these standard deviation calculations are any retirements or DNFs (and classified non-finishes count as DNFs). The Belgian Grand Prix (if you want to call it that) is also not included.

These calculations really do focus on about the “finishing” aspect of each driver and their consistency in that respect.

So Mazepin is ranked at the top, having recorded finishes between 14th and 20th place in all 14 races (again, excluding the Belgian Grand Prix) he finished throughout the 22-race 2021 season.

He managed to beat Verstappen, despite the fact that Verstappen had only one classified finish of outside the top two in 18 races (nine wins, eight runner-up finishes, one ninth place finish). That nine-win total is also representative of not including the Belgian Grand Prix, which he won.

First, a “quick” math lesson for those of you who care to know how the following numbers were calculated.

Standard deviation is a statistical term defined as “a quantity calculated to indicate the extent of deviation for a group as a whole.”

In simpler terms, how close, on average, is each number to the average of all of the numbers combined?

It can be somewhat confusing to calculate, and because we are only looking at a sample of the population (excluding retirements, DNFs, classified non-finishes, and the Belgian Grand Prix), there is a small change that needs to be made toward the end of the calculation.

First, you add up a set of numbers.

NOTE: The example provided is just a random set of numbers not representative of anybody’s 2021 Formula 1 season.

Example: 4 + 6 + 8 + 9 = 27

Then, you divide that total by the number of numbers in the set (4) to find the mean (average).

Example: 27/4 = 6.75

Then for each number, find the distance to the mean.

Tip: You can simply subtract each number from the mean, because in the next step, it won’t matter if it’s a negative or positive result.

Example:

• 4 – 6.75 = -2.75
• 6 – 6.75 = -0.75
• 8 – 6.75 = 1.25
• 9 – 6.75 = 2.25

Then square the result of each of these four answers.

Example:

• -2.75 ^ 2 = 7.5625
• -0.75 ^ 2 = 0.5625
• 1.25 ^ 2 = 1.5625
• 2.25 ^ 2 = 5.0625

Then add up these four numbers.

Example: 7.5626 + 0.5625 + 1.5625 + 5.0625 = 14.75

Here’s where things change. If you were looking at the entire population (which in this case, we are not, due to the exclusion of retirements, DNFs, classified non-finishes, and the Belgian Grand Prix), you would divide this number by the number of numbers in the set (4). Instead, you divide this number by one less than this number, which is 3.

Example: 14.75/3 = 4.916667

Finally, take the square root of this number.

Example: √ (4.916667) = 2.217

So including only true race finishes, here is a list of the 2021 season’s 20 full-time drivers, in order of consistency.

Rank – Driver, Team: Average Finish – Standard Deviation
1 – Nikita Mazepin, Haas: 17.87 – 1.51
2 – Max Verstappen, Red Bull: 1.89 – 1.84
3 – Antonio Giovinazzi, Alfa Romeo: 12.90 – 1.94
4 – Mick Schumacher, Haas: 16.50 – 2.01
5 – Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari: 6.33 – 2.37
6 – Lance Stroll, Aston Martin: 10.28 – 2.44
7 – Kimi Raikkonen, Alfa Romeo: 12.18 – 2.51
8 – George Russell, Williams: 13.00 – 2.65
9 – Lando Norris, McLaren: 6.25 – 2.69
10 – Nicholas Latifi, Williams: 15.06 – 2.89
11 – Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri: 7.29 – 2.89
12 – Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes: 2.75 – 3.27
13 – Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren: 8.30 – 3.54
14 – Sergio Perez, Red Bull: 5.44 – 3.57
15 – Esteban Ocon, Alpine: 9.28 – 3.58
16 – Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes: 4.59 – 3.62
17 – Fernando Alonso, Alpine: 8.95 – 3.67
18 – Yuki Tsunoda, AlphaTauri: 11.53 – 3.68
19 – Charles Leclerc, Ferrari: 6.53 – 3.69
20 – Sebastian Vettel, Aston Martin: 10.81 – 3.82

Perhaps the 2022 season will provide more consistency for Mazepin in the form of actually finishing races (his five DNFs were tied for second most among all drivers), and with a better average finish than 17.87, which was the worst in the sport — and by more than one full position behind teammate Mick Schumacher.