NASCAR: Which first-time winner will emerge next?

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season is still in its early stages, but youth has proven to be a dominant force in the opening races.

When Austin Cindric captured his first NASCAR Cup Series win in the Daytona 500, it set in motion a series of weeks in which drivers without a single career win at the sport’s highest level posed, at a bare minimum, a serious threat to capture their first victories.

Cindric became the ninth driver to earn his first Cup Series win in the Daytona 500 after leading 21 of the race’s 201 laps. Harrison Burton, who was also winless in the series at the start of the Daytona 500, led three laps in the race. Drivers who entered the day winless led for 24 of 201 laps, just under 12% of the race.

At Auto Club Speedway the following week, Tyler Reddick, who is winless in his 78 career starts, dominated by leading 90 laps and capturing both stage victories. Chase Briscoe, last year’s Rookie of the Year, led an additional 20, bringing the total number of laps led by winless drivers up to 110, a whopping 55% of the 200-lap race.

And, while he never officially led a lap, Daniel Suarez did spend about half a lap in first place with a car that ran well throughout the race. He also had a serious chance to steal a win.

At Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Ross Chastain, who had been close to grabbing wins in a number of his 117 prior starts, was out front for 83 of the race’s 274 laps. Add in the lap that Ty Dillon spent out front, and that brought the total to 84 laps led by winless drivers, just over 30% of that race.

Then in this past Sunday’s race at Phoenix Raceway, Chase Briscoe led 101 laps – roughly one-third of the 312-lap race – and held off multiple late-race charges to capture his first career win.

In doing so, he became the 200th different winner in Cup Series history. Chastain and Reddick, who are still waiting for their breakthrough moments, finished in second and third place, respectively.

The first four races of the 2022 season have produced two first-time winners and have fans wondering not necessarily if, but when and where the next winless driver will capture his first win at NASCAR’s highest level.

At the forefront of this conversation are Reddick and Chastain, who have been extremely competitive in recent weeks.

In the past, both drivers have shown common strengths in road course racing and rim-riding on worn tires.

Last season, Reddick took the pole position and finished in ninth place in the inaugural race at Circuit of the Americas. He also had strong runs at Road America and Watkins Glen International, where he captured a pair of top 10 finishes, and at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, where he was in contention to win before coming up just one spot short of victory.

Chastain also posted multiple top seven finishes on road courses last season at Circuit of the Americas, Sonoma Raceway and Road America.

So even if we don’t get one this coming weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, that may make the next great opportunity for a first-time winner to emerge just under two weeks away at Circuit of the Americas.

Tracks that have moderate-to-high tire wear and offer multiple racing grooves, including a racing lane just inches from the outside wall such as Auto Club Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where Reddick and Chastain dominated earlier this year, should also offer these two drivers good opportunities to find victory lane, but not as soon.

In the weeks that follow the Circuit of the Americas race, a series of short track races are scheduled to take place at Richmond Raceway, Martinsville Speedway and the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track.

Talladega Superspeedway and Dover Motor Speedway are scheduled to follow the short track swing, and nearly halfway through May is when the next event on a high-wear track with a dominant outside lane is scheduled to take place when the Cup Series hits Darlington Raceway and Kansas Speedway in back-to-back weeks.

Those two races should be key events for the #1 team at Trackhouse Racing Team and the #8 team at Richard Childress Racing.

While Reddick and Chastain are among the most likely to capture their first career wins next, other drivers including Suarez, Burton, Dillon and Corey LaJoie could also surprise fans as the next first-time winner.