NASCAR: The playoff cut line isn’t where you’d think it is

Through 10 races, just two drivers have won multiple races in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. Where do things stand at the playoff cut line?

In a thrilling finish in Sunday afternoon’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, Trackhouse Racing Team’s Ross Chastain became the second driver to win multiple races in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron became the first when he won two weekends prior at Martinsville Speedway. Through 10 races, eight drivers have found victory lane.

With 16 races remaining in the regular season, there is still a chance that there could be more than 16 different winners, which would result in at least one winner missing out on the playoffs. While the playoff format is generally classified as a “win and in” format, there are only 16 spots available.

Only one of the winners so far currently resides outside of the top 16 in the point standings, that being Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin in 24th place.

Hamlin’s only top 12 finish this season is his win at Richmond Raceway, which could very well save him from failing to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2013, when he missed four races with a back injury.

However, despite the fact that seven of the eight winners so far this year rank inside the top 16 in the point standings, the playoff cut line (on points) is currently a spot higher than you’d expect.

Instead of moving up just one position, from between the 16th and 17th place drivers to between the 15th and 16th place drivers, it is up two spots to between the 14th and 15th place drivers.

The reason for this is the fact that, because of Hamlin’s win, Team Penske’s Austin Cindric, who sits in 16th place, would technically be below the cut line on points. But because Cindric won the Daytona 500, however, he too sits in a provisional playoff spot, further moving the cut line up.

So right now, the driver sitting in the final points playoff spot sits in 14th place in the standings, not 15th, and there are still 16 races left for the cut line to continue to move.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell currently sits in 14th place, one point ahead of Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick in 15th.

Here is a list of the winless drivers who rank above Hamlin in points.

Rank – Driver – Points (To cut line)
1 – Chase Elliott – 368 (+126)
2 – Ryan Blaney – 347 (+105)
6 – Joey Logano – 308 (+66)
8 – Martin Truex Jr. – 298 (+56)
10 – Aric Almirola – 265 (+23)
11 – Kevin Harvick – 252 (+10)
13 – Austin Dillon – 245 (+3)
14 – Christopher Bell – 243 (+1)
-current playoff cut line (points)-
15 – Tyler Reddick – 242 (-1)
17 – Erik Jones – 231 (-12)
18 – Kurt Busch – 218 (-25)
18 – Daniel Suarez – 218 (-25)
20 – Chris Buescher – 196 (-47)
21 – Bubba Wallace – 193 (-50)
22 – Justin Haley – 183 (-60)
23 – Michael McDowell – 181 (-62)

To put this in perspective, last year, the driver who began the playoffs seeded lowest (16th), Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, ranked ninth in the regular season standings. The 16th and final driver to qualify, Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick ranked 11th. The driver who finished in 13th, Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon, failed to make it into the postseason.

Naturally, the cut line could drop back down throughout the rest of the regular season, provided Cindric and Hamlin climb in the point standings, but this assumes that the only new winners emerge from above it as well.

Plus, the points battles would still be among the current drivers near the bubble no matter where Cindric and Hamlin are placed. Even if there were currently in first and second place, Bell would still be the final driver above the cut line, one point ahead of Reddick below it.

How many more drivers will find victory lane before the regular season ends? How much higher will the playoff cut line climb? The 36-race season’s 11th race, the DuraMAX Drydene 400 presented by RelaDyne, is set to be broadcast live on Fox Sports 1 from Dover Motor Speedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 1. Start your free trial of FuboTV now!