NASCAR: Surprise favorite to steal a playoff spot?

Among those who need to win the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale to be in the playoffs, Bubba Wallace is the favorite.

With 14 playoff eligible drivers having won at least one of the first 25 races of the 26-race NASCAR Cup Series regular season, just two of the 16 playoff spots remain unclaimed heading into the 2022 regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway this Saturday night.

Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. currently hold those two spots on the strength of their point totals, with Blaney sitting 25 points ahead of Truex.

Nobody else can possibly point their way in, as there are only 60 points on the table in Saturday night’s race and the next closest non-winner, Petty GMS Motorsports’ Erik Jones, sits 187 points behind Truex.

Since there can still be a new winner, neither Blaney nor Truex is locked in yet (though at least one of the two is guaranteed to be in).

There are 13 other drivers who have a chance to claim one of those two spots by winning this 160-lap Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval.

In fact, just two full-time drivers cannot do so, since they have no way to jump into the top 30 in the point standings, even with a victory on Saturday night.

Leading the way among the 13 drivers in must-win situations is 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace.

Wallace has +1200 odds (a successful $100 bet wins $1,200) to win this race, trailing only Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott (+1000) on the overall odds list.

Of course, the implied chance of winning with +1200 odds is only 7.69%, which is by no means a likely scenario. Plus, he isn’t even the overall favorite to win the race. However, among the drivers absolutely needing a win, Wallace has the best chance to get it.

The next closest driver in a must-win situation is RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski at +1800. Keselowski owns seven career superspeedway victories and led the most laps in February’s season-opening Daytona 500.

Full odds for must-win drivers can be found here.

Wallace, who finished in second place in the Daytona 500 and now has three career runner-up finishes at Daytona International Speedway plus a superspeedway victory at Talladega Superspeedway, is tied for second best overall odds with Blaney and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin.

While Blaney doesn’t necessarily need to win the race to qualify for the playoffs since he can still get in on points, he may find himself in a must-win situation on the last lap depending on who the leader is and how many points he and Truex have scored up to that point.

Truex, like Blaney, can technically get in without winning, but he may find himself needing to do so when the white flag flies as well. He is tied with Keselowski at +1800.

Here are the odds for the other 11 drivers, of whom six have past wins at Daytona International Speedway, in must-win situations.

1. Erik Jones, #43 Petty GMS Motorsports Chevrolet: +2400
2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet: +2700
3. Aric Almirola, #10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford: +3000
4. Austin Dillon, #3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet: +3000
5. Chris Buescher, #17 RFK Racing Ford: +3500
6. Michael McDowell, #34 Front Row Motorsports Ford: +4000
7. Justin Haley, #31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet: +5500
8. Cole Custer, #41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford: +8000
9. Ty Dillon, #42 Petty GMS Motorsports Chevrolet: +10000
10. Harrison Burton, #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford: +15000
11. Todd Gilliland, #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford: +15000

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NBC is set to broadcast the Coke Zero Sugar 400 live from Daytona International Speedway beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 27. Take advantage of FuboTV’s free trial offer now and don’t miss the 2022 regular season finale!