NASCAR: The playoff driver whose team is already eliminated

Ryan Blaney can win the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship, but the #12 team can’t finish higher than 17th in points.

The four-round, 10-race 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are scheduled to get underway on Sunday evening with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, and 16 drivers are in the running to win the championship.

Of those 16 drivers, 15 qualified for the playoffs by winning at least one of the 26 regular season races. The only non-winner who qualified on points was Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney.

However, while Blaney is still in the running to win the championship, his #12 team did not make the owner playoffs and can therefore finish no higher than 17th place in the owner standings.

Prior to the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch announced that he would be withdrawing his medical waiver request and thus giving up his playoff spot.

Busch had been sidelined since his qualifying crash at Pocono Raceway in July left him with concussion-like symptoms. The regular season finale was his sixth missed race, but he had been granted a playoff waiver, meaning that his missed starts would not count against his playoff eligibility.

Prior to his announcement, the driver of the #45 Toyota been locked into the playoffs. He won the race at Kansas Speedway in mid-May, he was locked into the top 30 in the point standings, and there could no longer be more than 16 different regular season race winners.

Had Busch not withdrawn his waiver request, he would have been one of 16 playoff eligible race winners, leaving Blaney out of the postseason despite a third place finish in the regular season standings. Only the winners would have qualified for the playoffs.

However, the #45 team’s points — and win — are tied to the #45 team, not specifically to Busch. As a result, the #45 team, not the #12 team, is still among the 16 teams still in the running to win the owner championship, despite Busch’s extended absence.

23XI Racing made the decision earlier this week to put Bubba Wallace, the full-time driver of the #23 Toyota, behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota for the playoffs, since the #45 team remains eligible to win the title.

Wallace himself can no longer win the championship, since he finished the regular season winless and in 20th place in the point standings. He can therefore finish no higher than 17th. The #23 team finished the regular season in 21st in the owner standings and can therefore finish no higher than 17th as well.

Ty Gibbs, who competes full-time for Joe Gibbs Racing in the Xfinity Series, has served as Busch’s replacement since his crash, but 23XI Racing opted to put a more experienced Cup Series driver behind the wheel of the #45 Toyota in an attempt to bolster its owner championship chances.

Gibbs is set to drive the #23 Toyota whenever he competes throughout the playoffs, including in Sunday’s playoff opener at Darlington Raceway. If Busch returns before the season ends, he is set to drive the #23 Toyota as well. The #45 team begins the playoffs right on the round of 12 cut line, sitting in a 12th place tie with the #99 Trackhouse Racing team of Daniel Suarez.