NASCAR: Will Hendrick Motorsports’ decision backfire?

Could Hendrick Motorsports’ decision to appeal William Byron’s post-Texas penalty backfire by costing the team a NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 spot?

Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson found victory lane on Sunday afternoon at Homestead-Miami Speedway following a dominant effort in the Dixie Vodka 400, making him the fourth driver to win at least three races in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Larson’s win did not lock him into the Championship 4, however, since the reigning series champion was eliminated after the round of 12 and therefore did not qualify for the round of 8.

There is one round of 8 race remaining, and only one driver, Team Penske’s Joey Logano, is locked into the Championship 4, as he won the round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

However, Larson’s #5 team is locked into the Championship 4 of the owner playoffs, since they did manage to advance from the round of 12 to the round of 8 despite the fact that Larson didn’t.

The additional spot was open because of the fact that the #12 team of Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney never qualified for the playoffs, while Blaney himself did and advanced to the round of 8.

Blaney wouldn’t have been in the playoffs, but 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch withdrew his name as he continued to recover from the head injury he suffered in a single-car qualifying crash at Pocono Raceway in July. Busch clinched his playoff spot with a win at Kansas Speedway.

But while Busch withdrew his name, that win at Kansas Speedway remained tied to the #45 team, meaning that the #45 team did qualify for the owner playoffs. As a result, the #12 team was left on the outside looking in, locked in a 10-week battle for 17th place.

However, Larson’s elimination goes beyond the simple fact that a driver whose team was already eliminated managed to lock into the round of 8.

Larson was the first driver below the cut line after the round of 12. In fact, he tied with Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe for the eighth and final spot, but Briscoe won the tiebreaker due to having a better best finish in the three-round second round.

One driver who locked himself into the round of 8 was Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, who finished 11 points above the cut line.

Byron would have finished 14 points below the cut line — and Larson would have advanced — if not for the appeal of the 25-point penalty he was issued after his intentional retaliation on Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin during the round of 12 opener at Texas motor Speedway.

Had that penalty not been overturned (or really altered, since the fine was simply increased when his points were reinstated), Larson would have qualified for the round of 8.

His Homestead-Miami Speedway would have made him the second driver to lock into the Championship 4.

Could this appeal ultimately end up costing Hendrick Motorsports a Championship 4 spot?

Here is how the cut line currently looks.

Rank – Driver – Points (Ahead/Behind)
2 – Ross Chastain – 4,101 (+19)
3 – Chase Elliott – 4,093 (+11)
4 – William Byron – 4,087 (+5)
—-NASCAR CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE—-
5 – Denny Hamlin – 4,082 (-5)
6 – Ryan Blaney – 4,069 (-18)
7 – Christopher Bell – 4,054 (-33)
8 – Chase Briscoe – 4,043 (-44)

And here is how it would look if Larson were locked in (meaning he made it to the round of 8 and Byron did not).

Rank – Driver – Points (Ahead/Behind)
3 – Ross Chastain (+19)
4 – Chase Elliott (+11)
—-NASCAR CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE—-
5 – Denny Hamlin – 4,082 (-5)
6 – Ryan Blaney – 4,069 (-18)
7 – Christopher Bell – 4,054 (-33)
8 – Chase Briscoe – 4,043 (-44)

Of course, nobody could have anticipated that it would have been Larson who ended up being the driver who missed the round of 8 because the Byron appeal was successful.

Even still, the team likely would have gone to bat for the driver whom they felt was given excessive punishment, punishment that was really only issued to begin with because of NASCAR’s lack of attentiveness.

And even if Byron doesn’t make it, the fact that Larson was eliminated in the round of 12 could end up playing a role in Chase Elliott advancing (i.e., if Elliott would have been fifth had Larson made it but ends up fourth because he didn’t), meaning that Hendrick Motorsports would have ended up with just a single driver in the Championship 4 either way.

Then if Elliott wins the title over somebody such as Logano in second place, this decision could, in a massively roundabout way, result in Hendrick Motorsports taking the title instead of Team Penske — a major win for the team.

But right now, there are three spots still open, and none are guaranteed to go to a Hendrick Motorsports driver. Elliott and Byron remain in contention.

If not for the appeal, there would be two spots still open, with Elliott in contention by Byron not, but one of the two spots already taken would belong to a Hendrick Motorsports driver in Larson.

And what if Larson wins the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway — a win that would have clinched him a second straight title — and a Hendrick Motorsports driver doesn’t actually win the championship?

If it seems like hindsight is 20/20 now, just wait until the end of the season when we have the full picture. It’s always so easy to go back in time and make decisions.