NASCAR championship odds: Surprising favorite to win it all?

Four drivers have a chance to win the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway. Who is the favorite?

Following this past Sunday afternoon’s round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway, the Championship 4 field is set for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season finale at Phoenix Raceway this coming Sunday afternoon.

Team Penske’s Joey Logano became the first driver to clinch his spot in the championship round by winning the round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Nobody clinched a spot in the second race of the round at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson won the race, but he had already been eliminated from championship contention following the round of 8.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell won the round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway — from well below the cut line — to secure his spot in the Championship 4, and both Trackhouse Racing Team’s Ross Chastain and Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott locked themselves in on points.

Among these four drivers, the highest finisher in Sunday’s 312-lap race at the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.703-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval is set to be crowned champion.

Who is the favorite to win the title?

Here are the odds for each of these four drivers.

NOTE: +200 means a successful $100 bet returns $300.

• Chase Elliott: +200
• Christopher Bell: +260
• Joey Logano: +330
• Ross Chastain: +330

Bet now at WynnBET! Odds and availability subject to change.

Elliott has been the favorite for the last few months, and there was very little reason for that to change, as long as he made it to the Championship 4.

He has led the actual point standings since March and has already locked up the unofficial points “championship”. Even with a top finish of 10th place in the round of 8, he still managed to advance.

However, the fact that he has just two finishes higher than 10th place in nine playoff races thus far could be cause for concern, and it has even led to some question whether he should still be the favorite.

He has also finished higher than the other three Championship 4 contenders just twice in the last 14 races, a mark that ranks higher than only Chastain (once). Logano has done so seven times, while Bell has done so on four occasions.

It is worth mentioning that three of Bell’s four finishes higher than the other Championship 4 drivers in the last 14 races have all come within the last eight races, and his two playoff wins have come in cutoff races which he entered well below the cut line.

Measured by distance below the cut line entering the race, he is responsible for the two biggest walk-off wins in Cup Series playoff history.

Throughout the entire season, Logano has finished higher than the other three contenders 11 times in 35 races. Elliott has done so nine times, Bell has done so eight times, and Chastain has done so seven times, so things are relatively close by this metric.

Elliott owns five wins this year while Logano and Bell each own three and Chastain owns two. Since the Championship 4 format was introduced in 2014, the champion has won the season finale every year.

In the March race at Phoenix Raceway, Chastain finished in second place, Logano finished in eighth, Elliott finished in 11th, and Bell finished in 26th.

Tune in to NBC at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 6 for the live broadcast of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 from Phoenix Raceway. Begin a free trial of FuboTV today if you haven’t yet done so!