NASCAR: The big offseason driver change that could still happen

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series driver lineup is nearly complete, but there could still be a driver change at one of the sport’s top teams.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s driver lineup for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season was believed by many to be complete when Aric Almirola changed his mind and announced that he would not actually be retiring following the 2022 season.

The driver of the #10 Ford, who said before the season began that it would be his last, decided to sign a multi-year contract extension with the team, presumably giving them the same driver lineup for the third consecutive year in 2023.

Kevin Harvick is under contract through 2023 after signing a new deal in February 2020, Chase Briscoe is believed to be the team’s future, and Cole Custer’s father Joe is a Stewart-Haas Racing executive.

But Custer’s NASCAR future has been somewhat of a question mark in recent months, and Stewart-Haas Racing are reportedly considering replacing him.

When Almirola was supposed to be retiring, Ryan Preece was seen as the likely replacement candidate, as he had literally just signed with the team as their official reserve driver prior to Almirola’s announcement.

Preece competed for Stewart-Haas Racing-affiliated teams across all three national series (Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series) throughout the 2022 season, and team co-owner Tony Stewart reportedly wants to move him into Custer’s #41 Ford for 2023. However, team co-owner Gene Haas wants Custer to stay for a fourth season.

Custer has been a big disappointment at Stewart-Haas Racing, ever since earning his first victory at Kentucky Speedway in July 2020 to become the first rookie to qualify for the playoffs in four seasons. In 91 races since then, he has finished no higher than seventh place, and he has been worst among the team’s drivers in pretty much every significant statistical category.

With Custer having shown little to no sign of improvement throughout his first three years in the series, it’s a move the team may be forced to make.

Harvick is likely set to enter his final season with the team, and Almirola could reportedly still opt out of his new contract after the 2023 season. If Custer turns in another poor performance, a four-car team suddenly goes to one driver confirmed (Briscoe) for 2024.

Even if Preece doesn’t work out, at least they tried to look toward the future. He has more Cup Series experience than Custer and similar results, despite the fact that he drove for a far less competitive team in JTG Daugherty Racing for three seasons.

Sticking with Custer is probably the opposite of “playing it safe”, which would explain Stewart’s keenness to make the switch. With nothing official yet, it could still happen.