NASCAR: Stewart-Haas Racing driver on the hot seat?

Has Cole Custer found himself on the hot seat at Stewart-Haas Racing after a continued struggle throughout the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season?

Stewart-Haas Racing promoted Cole Custer from their NASCAR Xfinity Series team to their Cup Series team as the replacement for Daniel Suarez behind the wheel of the #41 Ford following the 2019 season.

Custer had a rough start to his rookie season, with his lone top 10 finish in the first 15 races being a ninth place finish at Phoenix Raceway. But he appeared to turn things around at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in July 2020.

He finished that race in fifth place, and he clinched a playoff berth by winning the following race at Kentucky Speedway with a late move to take the lead. After a DNF at Texas Motor Speedway, he finished in seventh at Kansas Speedway and eighth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, giving him four top eight finishes in a five-race span.

As the only rookie race winner — and the only rookie to qualify for the playoffs — he won the 2020 Rookie of the Year award, beating out Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick and Leavine Family Racing’s Christopher Bell, the two drivers with whom he battled in the Xfinity Series as part of the “Big 3”.

However, that Rookie of the Year award effectively masked what has been a struggle for Custer ever since.

And it is a struggle that has led some to question his future with Stewart-Haas Racing’s NASCAR Cup Series team.

In the final 16 races of the 2020 season, he finished no higher than ninth place and had just two top 10 finishes. He spent the final six of 10 playoff races as the lowest placed playoff driver in the standings, and by the time the season ended, he had scored fewer actual points than both Reddick and Bell.

His only five laps led of the 2020 season came in his Kentucky Speedway win, and he led only nine laps throughout the 2021 season. His only two top 10 finishes during the season, a total that was down from seven in 2020, were 10th place finishes.

He has finished higher than 10th place just three times since finishing in ninth at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval in October 2020.

None of those finishes are better than eighth place. He finished in ninth at Atlanta Motor Speedway and at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course this past July, and he finished in eighth at Bristol Motor Speedway this past September.

He only recorded 17 lead-lap finishes in 2021, down from 22 in 2020, and his average finish was 21.3, down from 19.2 in 2020. He finished in 26th place in the point standings in 2021, 10 spots lower than his 16th place finish from 2020 and six spots lower than his actual points finish from his rookie season.

Stewart-Haas Racing did struggle throughout the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, but Custer was the lowest placed of the four, even finishing behind rookie Chase Briscoe.

But in 2022, the team have taken a step forward, yet Custer ended up in 25th place in the point standings with just 21 lead-lap finishes and an average finish of 20.6. All ranked lowest at Stewart-Haas Racing.

Even Stewart-Haas Racing’s recent struggles can’t be used to justify Custer’s struggles. He hasn’t finished higher than eighth place in the last two calendar years, a span that has seen all three of his teammates find victory lane.

Not all of his poor results have been completely on him, and he has shown speed, qualifying in the top three for three races in a four-race span back in March and April. During that span, he took his first career pole position for the dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway. But aside from those three races, he has qualified higher than 20th place just 14 times this year.

However, when you have just four finishes of higher than 10th place in your last 88 races driving for one of NASCAR’s top teams, and you have just three top 10 finishes in your last 59 starts, serious questions need to start being asked; that’s just the nature of a “what have you done for me lately?” sport.

What could have played to Custer’s advantage is the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing had been under the impression that they had one driver to replace ahead of the 2023 season.

Aric Almirola announced before the 2022 season started that it would be his fifth and final season behind the wheel of the #10 Ford and his 15th and final full season of competition.

Stewart-Haas Racing have been no strangers to changing their driver lineup; the offseason between the 2021 and 2022 seasons was the first since between the 2015 and 2016 seasons during which they did not make a single driver change.

But they never changed more than one driver at a time during their five consecutive offseasons of change.

After 2016, Tony Stewart retired, and Clint Bowyer took over behind the wheel of the #14 Chevrolet-turned-Ford. After 2017, Almirola replaced Patrick, and after 2018, Kurt Busch was replaced by Suarez behind the wheel of the #41 Ford. Custer replaced Suarez after the 2019 season, and Chase Briscoe replaced Bowyer after 2020.

However, Almirola has since changed his plans, signing a multi-year contract extension to remain with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Replacing Custer would now only need to be the single change to the team’s driver lineup for 2023.

The team had indicated that they planned to move forward with Custer behind the wheel of the #41 Ford, a scenario which many have anticipated since he is the son of Stewart-Haas Racing team executive Joe Custer, but they stopped shy of confirming it, which could prove significant in this day and age of silly season.