2026 NASCAR Cup lineup looks set, but one team could pull a surprise

Is Ty Dillon really a lock to be back with Kaulig Racing after a disappointing 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season?
Talladega Superspeedway, NASCAR
Talladega Superspeedway, NASCAR | Sean Gardner/GettyImages

All things considered, there really wasn't that much action in NASCAR Cup Series silly season this past year in the buildup to the 2026 season.

Aside from Trackhouse Racing making the long-anticipated announcement that Connor Zilisch is set to replace Daniel Suarez, who is in turn set to join Spire Motorsports to replace the Truck Series-bound Justin Haley, the only other major announcement was the fact that Haas Factory Team decided to switch from Ford to Chevrolet.

Is there still a chance that could change?

Looking at the 2026 driver lineup, there appears to be very little, if any, wiggle room; things really do look set. However, there is still one team that stands out as a potential question mark, and that team is Kaulig Racing.

Could Kaulig Racing replace Ty Dillon?

Ty Dillon hasn't spent more than one full season with any team since his four-year run with Germain Racing to begin his full-time Cup Series career in 2017.

The younger Dillon brother has competed for a litany of teams during his career, including Richard Childress Racing, Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, Tommy Baldwin Racing, Gaunt Brothers Racing, Petty GMS Motorsports, Spire Motorsports, Team AmeriVet, and yes, even 23XI Racing for an exhibition race.

He is the sport's ultimately journeyman, and yet despite consistently not performing well and being outperformed by his teammates, he continues to land new rides.

According to Jayski, Dillon is "expected to return in 2026", but unlike the other 35 drivers in the 2026 full-time lineup, there hasn't been full confirmation that he is indeed set to return to the No. 10 Chevrolet next year.

Dillon recorded a single top 10 finish in 2025, and it was an eighth place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway that somehow spearheaded a run to the In-Season Challenge championship round, despite the fact that he recorded no other finishes higher than 17th during NASCAR's latest gimmick.

He was nowhere near the level of teammate A.J. Allmendinger, who is unsurprisingly set to return to the No. 16 Chevrolet after recording to two top five finishes and five other top 10 finishes in his first full season since 2023. Allmendinger hasn't run back-to-back full seasons in the series since his five years with JTG Daugherty Racing from 2014 to 2018.

Additionally, Dillon almost seemed relieved to have wrecked out of the Las Vegas Motor Speedway because of his own rookie mistake, a mistake which also took out an innocent bystander in championship contender William Byron.

In any other year, replacing Dillon would seem like a no-brainer for any team in the garage. There are plenty of drivers who would do better in that car and who would embrace the opportunity to be in Cup.

Daniel Hemric was dropped by the team after just one season in 2024, and he recorded four top 10 finishes that year. Even Allmendinger moved from full-time to part-time, coupled with a full-time return to the Xfinity Series in 2024, after winning a race and scoring three more top five finishes for the team during the 2023 Cup Series season.

What could prevent a shift here is the fact that Kaulig Racing's focus in undoubtedly now on their first year with Ram Trucks in the Truck Series.

They even paused their championship-level Xfinity Series (O'Reilly Auto Parts Series) team completely to start the new five-truck program, and all signs point toward them being the team to lead Dodge's rumored comeback to the Cup Series in 2028.

It's hard to imagine them getting full Chevrolet support in 2026, and rather than upset the apple cart with another driver change, simply riding with Dillon for another year could be viewed as the safe bet, especially since they know they have a viable number one driver in Allmendinger still performing at a respectable level.

And for as inexcusable as that Las Vegas wreck was, it was still one of only three Dillon DNFs in 2025. He had recorded 12 across his two most recent full seasons (2022 to 2023) entering the year. Leaving well enough (just barely) alone seems like the strategy here, even as the questions regarding how Dillon is somehow still competing at NASCAR's top level won't go away.

The 68th annual Daytona 500 is scheduled to get the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season underway on Sunday, February 15. Fox is set to provide live coverage from Daytona International Speedway starting at 2:30 p.m. ET.