The modern NASCAR Cup Series playoff format is in its 12th season, having been implemented in 2014. The format is widely considered a "win and in" format, but technically speaking, that has never been 100% true, with 16 playoff spots and 26 regular season races.
Yes, it's always worked out that way (aside from instances of encumbered victories, like Austin Dillon's last year). But this myth came close to being exposed in 2022, when 16 drivers won regular season races.
In fact, the first three playoff races were won by three non-playoff drivers. With 19 winners in the first 29 races of the year, the 2022 regular season came extremely close to seeing a winner fail to qualify for the playoffs.
4 NASCAR race winners could be out in 2025
We are now 17 races into the 2025 regular season, and six of the eight most recent races have been won by new drivers, giving the season 11 different winners.
Eight full-time drivers who won last year still haven't won this year, and considering the fact that the nine remaining regular season races consist of two superspeedway races, two road course races, and a street course race, we would be foolish to say that the regular season absolutely won't produce more than 16 different winners.
The 16 playoff spots officially go to the regular season champion, the multi-race winners, and the highest single-race winners in the point standings, meaning that if there are more winners than playoff spots, the tiebreaker to determine which single-race winners get in and which don't becomes points.
Likewise, when there aren't enough winners to fill the postseason field, the spots are filled by the top non-winners in the point standings. This is generally what ends up happening, but again, it's no guarantee.
Just three drivers have won multiple races through the first 17 events of the 2025 season. Should nine more new winners emerge before the regular season concludes, four race winners would miss the playoffs entirely.
Technically five race winners could miss out, but that's only if the regular season champion is winless, which doesn't appear likely with the top non-winner in points currently sitting fifth (Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott).
Even if four race winners don't miss the playoffs, it would sure send a message if at least one does. It would finally end the myth that the playoffs are truly a "win and in" format once and for all, even if winners do get catapulted above non-winners in the playoff picture.
The lowest winner in the point standings is currently Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen in 31st place. The next lowest are all the way up in 15th and 16th, those being Team Penske's Austin Cindric and Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry.
Thanks to van Gisbergen's win, both Cindric and Berry would actually be below the cut line had they not won themselves, despite sitting inside the top 16 in points.
This weekend's race is the Quaker State 400, and it is widely considered a "wild card" race since it is set to take place at one of NASCAR's three drafting tracks. Live coverage from Atlanta Motor Speedway is set to be provided by TNT Sports beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 28.