The offseason between the 2023 and 2024 Formula 1 seasons was the first in the history of the sport to feature a grand total of zero driver changes. All 10 teams entered the same two drivers to open up the 2024 season as they entered to conclude the 2023 campaign.
It took about a month for fans to realize that that may very well have been a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence, as Ferrari announced arguably the biggest driver change in the history of the sport in early February.
Seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton confirmed that he would be leaving Mercedes after the 2024 season, his 12th season with the Silver Arrows in what was the most successful driver-team pairing in Formula 1 history, and putting on the Scuderia red, replacing Carlos Sainz Jr. alongside Charles Leclerc.
Hamilton had reportedly been offered $50 million per year from Ferrari the previous year and turned it down; he was making around $40 million per year at Mercedes. This time, however, the offer was too good to pass up.
The two-year deal is said to be worth $87 million in both 2025 and 2026, with a quarter of that funding going toward Hamilton's Mission 44 initiative. Ferrari chairman John Elkann also agreed to create an investment fund for the 105-time Grand Prix winner with parent company Exor. That fund is valued at $272 million and includes a long-term ambassador role for Hamilton.
All things considered, you could say it's the Formula 1 equivalent of a $446 million NIL deal. And that deal was the first domino that could potentially sink the driver once known as the "next Max Verstappen".
Kimi Antonelli struggling as Lewis Hamilton's replacement
With the ongoing tension at Red Bull, centered around accusations against Christian Horner, really starting to heat up at around the same time, Toto Wolff turned to Max Verstappen to replace Hamilton. The then-three-time reigning world champion had a contract with Red Bull through 2028, but he was believed to be able to get out of it under certain conditions.
As it turned out, Verstappen remained with Red Bull, and despite the obvious answer for Mercedes seemingly being to sign Sainz, whom many believe was given a raw deal when Ferrari turned to a 40-year-old Hamilton to take his place, they opted to promote from within.
Kimi Antonelli, the driver dubbed by the media as the "next Max Verstappen", was handed the keys to Hamilton's seat. The 18-year-old's promotion was effectively the first involving a rookie joining a top team straight away since Hamilton himself joined Formula 1 with McLaren in 2007.
There were questions as to how ready Antonelli would be, not just in and of himself, but because George Russell is no pushover as a teammate; he beat Hamilton comfortably in two of their three seasons together. It's no secret that a driver's confidence can be crushed when put up against a race-winning teammate, especially at a top team right from the get-go – even if not a rookie.
These past few race weekends have exposed some of those concerns.
Antonelli's confidence was completely shot at Spa after pretty much a disastrous weekend all around, from sprint qualifying to the sprint race to Belgian Grand Prix qualifying to the Belgian Grand Prix itself. He had to battle back tears on more than one occasion.
Over the last seven race weekends, he has scored points only once, and he has retired on four occasions. His two non-points finishes during that stretch were both at least five positions worse than any of his finishes from the season's first six race weekends.
And even with those points being the 15 he scored with an impressive first career podium in Canada, he still only ranks 13th in total points scored during that stretch, behind the likes of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson, and Russell has outscored him 79-15, having scored points in all but one of those seven weekends.
'Next Max Verstappen' label exposed as unfair
All things considered, the "next Max Verstappen" label was entirely unfair. It was a massive burden to place on the shoulders of the then-17-year-old with no Formula 1 experience. It was a lot to live up to, to say the least.
You could even argue that some of the media only turned to that label due to being sick of Verstappen winning and desperate to find the "next", further adding to the illustration that it was the thing that should have been furthest from Antonelli's mind.
There have already been rumors about Verstappen joining Mercedes in 2026, and while many of those rumors suggested Verstappen as Russell's replacement, that is reportedly no longer a sure thing.
As things stand right now, Verstappen cannot activate a performance clause in his contract to leave Red Bull after 2025, but as we've seen so often in Formula 1 over the years, no contract is watertight, and Mercedes still have the ability to press toward a buyout if all parties can come to an agreement.
It seems fairly safe to say that Antonelli needed at least a season (for what it's worth, Russell had three) with a non-front-running team to get up to speed before a promotion to Mercedes, especially as a teenager.
And it might well have happened, too. Had Red Bull opted to take Sainz, rather than commit to Sergio Perez before ultimately cutting him anyway, perhaps the second Williams seat alongside Albon would have been free for Wolff to negotiate with former colleague James Vowles about taking in Antonelli and putting him on a Russell-like career trajectory.
Think for a moment: would Russell be the driver he is today had he been inserted next to prime Lewis Hamilton back in 2019 as a 21-year-old rookie?
Instead, the 18-year-old Italian now either needs to find his confidence on his own, and fast, or risk being replaced before ever truly seeing his career get off the starting grid.