While there's still one more road course race on the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series schedule before the 110th running of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the focus has already begun to shift to the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing", with the two-day open test scheduled to take place on Tuesday, April 28 and Wednesday, April 29.
Chip Ganassi Racing's Alex Palou is set to return to the "Racing Capital of the World" as the reigning Indy 500 winner, and with three wins in the first five races of 2026, after a 2025 season during which he led the championship standings from start to finish and also captured his first oval championship, he is understandably the favorite to win it again.
But winning the Indy 500 in back-to-back years is tough to do. Before Team Penske's Josef Newgarden did it in 2023 and 2024, it hadn't been done since Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. Only four other drivers have ever pulled it off.
Palou, who was considered the clear best driver without an Indy 500 victory prior to his 2025 triumph, is listed by DraftKings Sportsbook as the +450 favorite to prevail on Memorial Day Weekend again this year.
Who are the top five threats standing in his way?
1. Josef Newgarden, Team Penske
Odds: +550
Josef Newgarden reminded IndyCar fans that he is still the driver to beat on ovals by closing out the 2025 season with a win at Nashville Superspeedway and winning at Phoenix Raceway back in early March. A charge from 32nd into the top five was cut short by a fuel pump issue in the 2025 Indy 500, ending a potential three-peat bid. But four of the other five drivers to win back-to-back Indy 500s won a third at some point.
2. Pato O'Ward, Arrow McLaren
Odds: +650
Pato O'Ward now possesses the unwanted distinction of being the "best to never", and he has come close on multiple occasions. He was fourth in 2021 and runner-up in 2022 before crashing late while battling for second in 2023. Then the heartbreak peaked in 2024, when Newgarden passed him for the win on the final lap. After quietly finishing third in 2025, can he finally seal the deal?
3. David Malukas, Team Penske
Odds: +800
David Malukas might quietly be Palou's biggest threat. He finished second in the race a year ago with A.J. Foyt Enterprises and has been Team Penske's top driver through the first five races of his first season behind the wheel of the No. 12 Chevrolet, highlighted by a pole and a podium at Phoenix. He's been seemingly overdue for his first win for a while, and there is no better spot for it than Indy.
T-4. Scott McLaughlin, Team Penske
Odds: +1000
Indianapolis is the only oval where Scott McLaughlin has competed at more than once and not scored at least one top three finish within his first two starts. He took pole in 2024 and finished a career-high sixth, and he will want to do everything he can possibly do to erase the memory of crashing out of the 2025 race before it even started.
T-4. Kyle Kirkwood, Andretti Global
Odds: +1000
In terms of beating Alex Palou, nobody has done that better than Kyle Kirkwood over the past two years. He was second in series victories with a career-high three in 2025, and he is the only driver within 60 points of Palou atop this year's standings (-17) after spending time at the top for the first time. Since the 2025 Indy 500, he has gotten his first career oval win at Gateway, and he was runner-up at Phoenix in this year's only oval race thus far.
Others to watch: Ed Carpenter Racing's Christian Rasmussen (+1200), Andretti Global's Marcus Ericsson (+1400), Chip Ganassi Racing's Scott Dixon (+1500), Andretti Global's Will Power (+1600), Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's Takuma Sato (+1800), Ed Carpenter Racing's Alexander Rossi (+1800)
Full Indy 500 odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
The Indy 500 open test is set to be shown live on IndyCar's YouTube channel.
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