23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick entered the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season having not won a race since October 2024. Within a stretch of eight days, he became the sport's first driver to win back-to-back races to start the season since Matt Kenseth did it in 2009.
And while the "it's only a superspeedway!" cliche was echoed by NASCAR fans more than once about Reddick's Daytona 500 win at Daytona International Speedway, which came as he led only the final lap, and his Autotrader 400 win at EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway), which came without a front right fender on his No. 45 Toyota, that narrative was quietly shot down on Saturday morning at Circuit of the Americas.
For the second consecutive year, the 2023 COTA winner took pole position for the 95-lap DuraMAX Grand Prix around the 17-turn, 2.4-mile (3.862-kilometer) Austin, Texas road course.
A full starting lineup for the season's first road course race can be found here.
No driver has ever won three consecutive races to start a season in Cup Series history, and Reddick now has the second shortest odds to pull it off at DraftKings Sportsbook at +450 after starting the weekend at +1600. Who are the five drivers most likely to derail him?
1. Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
Odds: +120
Shane van Gisbergen has won five consecutive non-oval races, and that doesn't even include his Saturday victory at COTA in the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series. You simply don't see +120 odds at the Cup level too often, and even those might be longer than you'd expect for SVG on a road course, only because COTA was the one road course where he didn't win a year ago.
2. Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
Odds: +700
Yes, we're only two races into the season, but let's not beat around the bush. Connor Zilisch needs a good result. For a driver who has been considered the "most hyped prospect since Jeff Gordon", he needs to make something happen. He's last in the point standings among full-time drivers, and given the fact that he's known for his road course racing prowess, he needs a strong showing at COTA.
3. Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Odds: +800
Surprise: another Trackhouse Racing driver, and this time, the one who is actually set to start the furthest up the grid. If not for a slight hiccup in qualifying, Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick would be in reverse positions on the front row. Chastain is the 2022 winner of this race, although like Reddick in 2023, he won on the longer 20-turn, 3.41-mile (5.488-kilometer) version of the circuit.
4. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske
Odds: +900
This one is a little surprising, seeing as how Ryan Blaney's lone career road course victory came at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval eight years ago and he's only once finished inside the top 10 at COTA, and he had just one top 10 finish in six road or street course races in 2025. But a lot of people felt that his fourth place qualifying speed actually understated the potential pace in the car.
5. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +1000
Once considered NASCAR's best road course racer and even placed in the greatest of all-time debate, Chase Elliott has shockingly still never won a road course race since the Next Gen car debuted in 2022. He is a former COTA winner though (2021), and he drove from last to fourth a year ago after an opening lap collision that was not of his own doing.
Full COTA NASCAR odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Fox is set to provide live coverage of the DuraMAX Grand Prix from COTA starting at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 1. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and catch all of the action from the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season's first road course race!