Five races is admittedly a bit of a small sample size, especially the first five races of a new NASCAR Cup Series season.
But after the 2025 season opened up with two superspeedway races and a road course race, fans have gotten a pretty good idea of who the contenders are (and aren't) after "regular" oval races at Phoenix Raceway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
There have certainly been some surprises so far this year. Not many would have expected a driver to win three straight races at three very different race tracks in the Next Gen era, but that's exactly what Christopher Bell did at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Circuit of the Americas (COTA), and Phoenix.
And not many would have expected the top three at Las Vegas to consist of three drivers who had had a combined two wins and two playoff appearances, with Josh Berry leading the way en route to his first career victory.
A number of other drivers, however, have had no such success. But despite their underperformance, they are not considered to be on the hot seat.
Here are five drivers who aren't on the hot seat, but they certainly should be if they don't step it up.
Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing
It seems like a long time ago when Ty Gibbs was considered the next big thing in NASCAR. He is probably not at risk of losing his seat, given the fact that he is backed by Monster Energy and drives for his grandfather's team, but at some point, he needs to step up.
Gibbs, who replaced Kyle Busch in 2023, finds himself in 34th place in the point standings with no top 15 finishes, this after finishing the 2024 season with five straight finishes of 30th or worse.
Yes, it took Chase Elliott three years to get his first win as well, so we don't want to completely overreact to the struggles of the 22-year-old. But Elliott was a regular frontrunner in 2016 and 2017 as well. Aside from a few early races last year, Gibbs hasn't been anywhere close to that, and that's despite his team winning three of the first five races of 2025.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
Keeping with the theme of driving for one's grandfather, we have Austin Dillon, who finds himself in 32nd place in the point standings. He hasn't finished in the top 16 in the regular season standings since 2016.
The one thing Dillon has going for him is that he has four playoff-clinching wins from outside the top 16 in points since the modern playoff format was introduced in 2014, and it would have been five had his win at Richmond Raceway not been encumbered last year. Nobody else has more than two, so for as much hate as he gets, he does have somewhat of a clutch factor.
But Dillon is coming off of back-to-back seasons of 29th and 32nd in the standings after having never finished lower than 21st in nine previous seasons. Is relying on upset victories year after year really the smart play?
Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing
It took Riley Herbst, another driver backed by Monster Energy for several years, four years of driving top-tier equipment to win his first Xfinity Series race, and while he got somewhat of a "late bloomer" benefit of the doubt after winning twice and making his deepest playoff run in 2024, there was some speculation that he would not be much of a threat at the Cup level with 23XI Racing.
Through five races, his top finish is 17th place, and he sits in 27th in the standings, while teammates Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace are third and 11th, respectively. Only Cole Custer and Cody Ware have worse top finishes.
I also can't ignore what I'm seeing at Joe Gibbs Racing with Denny Hamlin and his sponsorship rotation following the departure of FedEx. We all saw what happened to Kyle Busch once M&M's left, so I am even less inclined to discount the possibility of Hamlin driving for his own team eventually. Is replacing Herbst on the table?
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
Like Herbst, I want to give fellow rookie Shane van Gisbergen the benefit of the doubt. But did anybody else get the impression that Trackhouse Racing signing him to be their third driver after a relatively disappointing year in 2024 was a bit of a desperation move by the team in the hope of securing a playoff spot and thus a nice owner standings payout with a road course win?
Van Gisbergen finds himself in 31st place in the point standings, and his only top 22 result is a sixth place effort at COTA. He looked like he could have won that race, but his restarts undoubtedly need to improve.
I'm sure all can be forgiven if the New Zealander does indeed win his way into the playoffs this year, and he should be a favorite to win every road course race. But if not, Trackhouse Racing could have a problem on their hands, because he simply hasn't been competitive on ovals, and he wasn't particularly competitive on ovals in the Xfinity Series either.
This is a team that many believe have already basically moved on from Daniel Suarez, and he just finished in second place. So van Gisbergen's leash could be shorter than expected, especially with Connor Zilisch lurking.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing
I didn't want to include Chase Briscoe here, because there is still a lot of hype surrounding his move to Joe Gibbs Racing, especially after he won with a Stewart-Haas Racing team that were a mere shell of their past selves last year. Plus, there are a lot of other drivers on smaller teams who could easily be ousted if they don't step it up.
But even he admitted a few weeks ago that, whether his 100-point penalty was overturned or not, driving the No. 19 Toyota for a team as good as Joe Gibbs Racing means you are always in a must-win situation.
Briscoe hasn't finished higher than 14th place since his season got off to a hot start with a pole and a fourth place finish in the Daytona 500, the highest finish for a "Great American Race" polesitter since 2000, and he hasn't exactly been quick, either.
The fact that teammate Christopher Bell just won three straight races could ramp up the pressure further, even after Briscoe signed a multi-year deal to replace Martin Truex Jr. The No. 19 team hasn't won a race since July 2023.
Homestead-Miami Speedway is scheduled to host the sixth race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season this Sunday, March 23. The Straight Talk Wireless 400 is set to be shown live on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!