The NASCAR Cup Series playoff field is set, and 16 drivers will be competing for racing immortality at the conclusion of the Cup Series championship race at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, November 2.
Some drivers are considered much likelier than others to capture the title. Seven of the 16 enter the playoffs outside the top 10 in full-season points, and with the exception of three-time and defending champion Joey Logano, who always seems to have a way of turning it on at the right time, it would be shocking to see any of them crowned.
For that reason, we can pretty safely write off Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen, and Austin Dillon. But here are five others considered to have legitimate title aspirations who appear fated to fall short of expectations.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
This is the part of the season when, despite what fans still living in 2003 want to believe, it will be exposed that running in 10th place every week isn't going to cut it.
Elliott has a win at EchoPark Speedway this year and has sporadically shown the ability to run up front, but overall, the No. 9 team is simply not fast enough to compete for championships. Maybe after his inevitable round of 8 exit, Hendrick Motorsports will finally realize it's time to give NASCAR's Most Popular Driver a fresh start with a new crew chief, something that should've happened years ago.
Joey Logano, Team Penske
It's an odd-numbered year, which means Logano's dark playoff magic isn't going to work this fall.
There may be something to be said about the fact that the No. 22 team just has a way of rising to the occasion, but last year, that required winning a five-overtime fuel mileage derby at Nashville Superspeedway just to make the playoffs, and then having Alex Bowman get disqualified at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to advance past the second round.
That's not happening again, and Team Penske will be putting all of their eggs into Ryan Blaney's basket by October.
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing
Reddick has done all he can for a 23XI Racing operation enduring a tumultuous season due to their ongoing lawsuit against NASCAR, but the goose egg in the win column remains an eyesore on his 2025 resume.
He enters the playoffs with only six playoff points, and the No. 45 team has struggled to execute all season long, consistently getting worse throughout races and running into problems on pit road. That's going to be hard to overcome.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing
Briscoe's first season with Joe Gibbs Racing has turned him into Ryan Newman reincarnated. He has great qualifying speed and has finished better than he's run in a number of races this year due to pit strategy, including his win at Pocono Raceway.
But he hasn't shown much of an ability to overcome poor track position on his own, and at some point, that's going to come back to bite him. He's been extremely lucky to avoid on-track adversity this season, and if trouble strikes, he could endure a much earlier exit than anticipated.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
Thanks to Blaney fending off potential spoilers in Daniel Suarez, Justin Haley, and Cole Custer at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday night, Bowman solidified that all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers will be in the playoffs. But that won't last long.
He's at an even greater disadvantage than Reddick where playoff points are concerned, and like Elliott, he runs in the top 10 a lot but seldom ever leads or contends for wins. His best-case scenario is to avenge last year's disqualification heartbreak by making the round of 8, but he won't be going any further.
The playoffs are scheduled to begin this Sunday, August 31 at Darlington Raceway with the Cook Out Southern 500. USA Network is set to provide live coverage starting at 6:00 p.m. ET. Start a free trial of FuboTV now!