As hard as it is to believe, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is already one-third of the way complete. That means that after the conclusion of the Coca-Cola 600 two weeks from now, the race to the playoffs will be halfway in the books.
Looking at the point standings, there are some surprising names in some surprising places. Austin Cindric and Josh Berry have all but secured playoff berths by winning their way in, while Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is also unexpectedly above the cut line on points as it stands.
Ryan Preece and John Hunter Nemechek are within striking range as well, after neither was on the radar of many fans at the start of the year.
Let's take a closer look at these five drivers, specifically who may be a threat to not only make the playoffs, but to make some noise in the playoffs, and who has merely been smoke and mirrors.
Contenders or pretenders?
1. Austin Cindric, Team Penske
Throughout his first three full Cup Series seasons, Cindric showed flashes of potential but lagged considerably behind Team Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.
In year four, however, he has come into his own. He's only 30 laps led away from surpassing his career-high in the category, and though he's only earned three top 10 finishes, he has consistently had the speed to compete near the front on most weeks.
Even though Cindric is considered a potential playoff bid thief with his win at Talladega Superspeedway, he'd currently make the field on points, as he sits 14th in the standings. Even that doesn't tell the full story, as he was penalized 50 points at Circuit of the Americas for intentionally crashing Ty Dillon. Without that penalty, he'd be ninth, five points ahead of defending champion Logano.
Verdict: contender
2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Hyak Motorsports
Out of all the drivers currently in a playoff position on points, Stenhouse is easily the biggest surprise. What was formerly known as JTG Daugherty Racing was rebranded over the offseason and became Hyak Motorsports, and it was unclear what to expect. Now 12 races into the season, he's 15th in points, ahead of the likes of Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, and Brad Keselowski.
Of course, this all comes with the caveat that Stenhouse has been extremely lucky to avoid any bad finishes, with his worst result being 25th place at Darlington Raceway.
This is unsustainable for any driver, but especially one who has been dubbed "Wrecky Spinhouse" by his peers due to his propensity for crashing. Unless he wins a superspeedway race at Atlanta Motor Speedway or Daytona Internatinoal Speedway prior to the playoffs, his time in the playoff picture won't last much longer.
Verdict: pretender
3. Ryan Preece, RFK Racing
Another driver with a new team this season is Preece, who joined an expanded RFK Racing in the No. 60 Ford. After five unmemorable seasons at previous stops with JTG Daughterty and Stewart-Haas Racing, he was considered the third wheel behind teammates Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher.
Instead, he's barely outside the playoff picture, and had he not been disqualified out of a runner-up finish at Talladega, he'd be solidly in.
Is Preece for real? It's hard to say. He has four top 10 finishes in 12 races (not counting Talladega), and he has shown speed at a variety of track types. It's not normal for a driver to break out this late into his career, and for that reason, it's understandable to remain skeptical.
But so far, the Connecticut native is checking all the boxes in 2025, and if he's still flirting with a playoff position by July or so, he has to be considered legit.
Verdict: contender...for now
4. Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
Drivers on new teams are a theme on this list. Berry has found a home with the legendary Wood Brothers organization after Stewart-Haas Racing closed its doors, and in his second full Cup Series campaign, the 34-year-old late bloomer has already made it to victory lane at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Unless there are more than 16 winners during the regular season, something that's never happened in 11 years of the 16-man playoff format, Berry will be in the postseason field.
Can the Tennessee native prove to be more than just a one-win wonder, though? Given the speed his No. 21 Ford has had all year, there's no reason why not. He's buried outside the playoff field on points, but that has not been indicative of how well he's run in 2025.
He ranks seventh in the series in laps led, and had he not crashed while leading at Texas Motor Speedway two weeks ago, he might even already have his second win. It shouldn't be surprising if Berry advances at least one round in the playoffs.
Verdict: contender
5. John Hunter Nemechek, Legacy Motor Club
Last season was Nemechek's first back in the Cup Series after a three-year hiatus, and it was a disaster for both him and his Legacy Motor Club race team. The second-generation driver was 34th in points, last among full-time competitors, and he finished on the lead lap only 12 times.
In 2025, it's been a different story. He's considerably cut down on his mistakes and sits in the top 20 in points, with as many top 10 finishes (four) in 12 races as he had all of last season.
However, much like Stenhouse, he feels destined for some regression. Nemechek's best finishes have all been either on superspeedways or through benefitting from mass attrition, and while Legacy Motor Club are markedly improved from a season ago, they are still not consistently fast enough to put a driver in the playoffs.
Verdict: pretender