Best-case (and worst-case) scenarios for all 16 NASCAR playoff drivers

It has been a long season already, with plenty of ups and downs. But here we are. The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are set to begin this weekend at Darlington Raceway with the Cook Out Southern 500 (Sunday, August 31 at 6:00 p.m. ET on USA Network). It's a crown jewel race, and most importantly, a good race to make a statement in the opening round of the playoffs.

Look no further than this event in 2024, when it hosted the regular season finale since NASCAR's season was effectively pushed back by a week due to NBC's Summer Olympics commitment.

Chase Briscoe broke through to secure his spot in the playoffs last year with a walk-off win, his first in more than two years. This time around, the 16 gladiators, if you will, are already set. There are plenty of favorites, but there are also those who are longshots – and of course, some drivers who are fortunate to be involved at all.

So it's time to take a look at each of the 16 Cup Series drivers who will duke it out for the 2025 NASCAR championship. Let's have a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each of them – more of a breakdown of where each driver stands going into the postseason, rather than a straight-up prediction.

The top 4 favorites

Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson comes into the 2025 playoffs tied with teammate William Byron, the regular season champion. Both Larson and Byron begin the playoffs 26 points above the cut line.

Larson, the 2021 Cup Series champion, has had a solid season with three wins. But his summer stretch was ugly, with five finishes of 28th or worse. He does have some momentum with back-to-back sixth-place finishes coming into the playoffs.

He's one of the best at Darlington and has been good at most of the tracks throughout the playoffs. Larson's best case is that he will be at Phoenix Raceway fighting for the championship. Worst case, he's bounced in the round of 8.

William Byron

Byron has had speed all season, and his two victories this year prove that he's a legit contender for the title. He continues to get better and better each year, and the two-time reigning Daytona 500 champion is looking to finally break through.

He's made the Championship 4 two years in a row, and it's hard not to think he can get back there again. Byron has shown he's strong at all forms of tracks, and that's what it takes to get the job done during these 10 races. Byron's best case is being crowned champion, and his worst case is another Championship 4 appearance.

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin is making his 19th playoff appearance. He's still looking for that first championship. He has won a series-high four races this year, and he's got arguably the best team on pit road. The No. 11 team has speed each and every week, and Hamlin was quite confident during media day. His best case is getting back to the Championship 4, while his worst case is another round of 8 exit.

Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell certainly has been quiet as of late. He started the 2025 season with a bang, winning three races in a row. He's been inside the top three in five other races this season, and he won at Phoenix earlier this year. That has to count for something.

The first round doesn't feature his best tracks, but getting to that second round could be money, as Bell has won at both New Hampshire Motor Speedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval in his career. I can't shy away from the driver I picked to win the title at the start of the season. Bell's best outcome is that he is the champion, and at worst, he's out in the round of 8.

4 more contenders

Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has the best thing going for him right now: momentum, fresh of his win at Daytona International Speedway. The No. 12 team has a great opportunity for a third straight Championship 4 appearance. He won the title 2023 and drives for Team Penske, still the only team to win a title during the Next Gen era.

It's hard not to think he's going to put himself in contention once again. He can't slip up in the first round, however. He's led at each of the tracks, but something always seems to go wrong for him. Blaney's best outcome is another Championship 4, while his worst is the round of 12.

Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott the most consistent driver in NASCAR right now, really going back to last year. However, can he have enough speed in the playoffs to take advantage of some of the tracks he's been good at? He hasn't quite had the same mojo in the playoffs as he had during his big run from 2018 to 2022, when he was the only driver with multiple wins each year.

He's always been strong at venues such as Bristol Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Martinsville Speedway, but his lack of playoff points is what has me not as confident. Elliott's best outcome is another round of 8 appearance, while his worst is his first round of 12 exit since 2016.

Joey Logano

Joey Logano is always a contender. He's won three of these championships, including two of the three most recent. The only thing against him is that it's an odd year, and historically, he hasn't performed as well in those years.

He drives for Team Penske, so he's not out of it, but he's seeded 12th to start the playoffs and is only one point above the cut line. Gateway and Bristol could prove to be very useful for him in the opening round. But his best hope is only a round of 12 berth, while his worst is a second round of 16 exit in three years.

Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe might be the sneakiest of the contenders. He's had speed all year, but just hasn't always had the finishes to support it. His win at Pocono Racway was impressive, and he knows what it takes to win at Darlington. He should continue to qualify well and just needs to race better. The round of 8 is very obtainable for Briscoe, but going out in the round of 12 could happen just as easily.

4 dark horses

Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace, for once, didn't have to sweat his way into the playoffs. He scored big with his Brickyard 400 win. There was a time when winning that race meant you had a good shot of winning the championship.

I'm not saying that is Bubba's fate. He's been fast, and he's pushing for a career year in the points overall. But it's going to be tough to top a lot of the other guys. Wallace will have to work hard to get further than the round of 12; thus, that's his best and worst case for the playoffs.

Ross Chastain

Ross Chastain has to be the dark horse with the best shot of upsetting everyone. Nobody seems to be talking about him, nor were they when he pulled the Hail Melon in 2022. His most recent top 10 finishes have come on road courses, so he hasn't been at his best lately.

But he did win the Coca-Cola 600 this year. Recent champions haven't been quite at the top of their game for most of the season and then flip a switch in the playoffs. That's why Chastain's best case in a Championship 4 surprise; worst case, he's out in the round of 16.

Alex Bowman

Alex Bowman is the luckiest driver in the group. He had to sit and pray on his bus at Daytona after getting crashed out. For the driver of the famous No. 48 car, it was an uncomfortable feeling. Now he enters the playoffs 16th on the grid, and he's five points below the cut line to start.

Having not won this season, a win in the opening round could very well save his season. He statistically hasn't been bad, with 14 top 10 finishes and six top five finishes. He's just had some tough luck, it seems. I like to think that what happened to him in the 2024 playoffs will correct itself this time around. Thus, the round of 8 is reachable; he could also get bounced in the first round.

Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick, like Bowman, got into the playoffs on points. With so much craziness and uncertainty at 23XI Racing, it's pretty tough to see how he can stay focused. I think it's part of the reason why he hasn't found victory lane up to this point. Darlington could easily change that, as he loves riding the wall. But unfortunately, his best case for the playoffs is getting to the round of 12; worst, he's out after the opening round.

4 longshots

Austin Cindric

Austin Cindric got a much-needed win at Talladega Superspeedway early in the season. However, since then, the driver of the No. 2 car has been less than impressive. At times, he looked like the clear weakest link at Team Penske. Through all that, he sits 10th on the playoff grid, ahead of Logano.

The opening round should be interesting. You have to take into account that he won at Gateway just last season. That is probably his best shot at getting beyond the round of 12, but his worst outcome is that he stumbles and goes out in the round of 16.

Josh Berry

Josh Berry broke through with his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this season. It was the Wood Brothers' first win at a 1.5-mile track since 1993. But Berry is going to have to pray for another miracle.

You have to go back to the early 1980s to find the most recent instance of the No. 21 car winning more than one race in a season, and Berry has to win again if he wants to get past the opening round. Thus, both his best and worst-case scenarios include a round of 16 exit.

Shane van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen has sure been a killer on the road courses, having won at four of them in a row heading into the playoffs to tie him with Hamlin for the series lead in wins. That's about all he's got going for him, however. He's got to find some consistency on ovals if he wants to take advantage of his opportunity.

For all we know, he will get a fifth win at the Charlotte Roval in October to make it five in a row.

But sadly, I think he'll be out of the playoffs before then. He's got all those playoff points from winning, but if he can't score some top 15 finishes or even break through with a top 10 finish somewhere on the ovals, he will be out of luck. Best-case scenario, he's in the round of 8 (assuming a Roval win); worst-case, he's out after the opening round.

Austin Dillon

Austin Dillon not only won at Richmond for the second year in a row; he was dominant. This time, there wasn't any controversy either. He is Richard Childress Racing's one shot at the championship in 2025.

He will need to have that speed show up at the short tracks, because the 1.5-mile package for the team has been pretty rough. You never know what could happen, but a borderline round of 12 appearance could be his best scenario, while the more realistic outcome is that he's out after the opening round.