Brickyard 400 exposed an under-the-radar element of NASCAR's playoff debate

Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin are all separated by just 20 points atop the regular season standings with just four races to go.
Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, NASCAR
Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, NASCAR | Jonathan Bachman/GettyImages

Bubba Wallace's Brickyard 400 victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this past weekend was rather significant for a number of reasons.

For one, it was Wallace's first win since the fall race at Kansas Speedway in 2022, also making it his first win with owner Michael Jordan's famed No. 23 since the fall race at Talladega Superspeedway in 2021. It was also his first crown jewel win, and he held off arguably the best in the sport in Kyle Larson to get it done.

Most importantly, however, was its impact on the playoff picture with four races now remaining. There are now just three drivers, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher, currently in a playoff spot without a win. All of them are in relatively strong positions, sitting 138, 63, and 42 points above Ryan Preece on the other side of the cut line, respectively.

Barring any surprise winners or a few disastrous races for these three drivers, it does seem the 16-driver field is more or less set.

What very few people are talking about after the race is how close the regular season championship battle has become.

How close, you ask? The top four drivers in the standings, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin, are all separated by just 20 points. To put that in perspective, Hamlin, who missed a race in Mexico, could match Elliott's lead by simply winning both stages in Iowa this weekend.

This occurrence is also one of relative historical significance, because according to NASCAR Insights, it's the closest top four at this point in a season since 2012. Considering we're 22 races into the season, it's far from a small sample size, and rather a showcase of how tight the competition really is. That's less than a 1.0 point per race average difference between any of these four drivers.

Now, this would be quite the championship battle, wouldn't it? Four of the most consistent drivers all season, in a tightly contested title fight right down to the last race is something Formula 1 fans, aside from 2010, can only dream of. Yet in NASCAR, it happens every single year, albeit in a different, controversial way.

Insert the much-debated playoff format, where aside from bonus points awarded to the top regular season drivers once the postseason begins, this battle, no matter how tight it may be, is largely insignificant. At this time of year, rather than focusing on those top four drivers in what would be a likely title fight, everybody is instead directed to focus on the 14th through 18th place drivers in the standings as they race for the final playoff spots.

Many fans on social media saw that stat from NASCAR Insights and again voiced their frustrations with the current format. One of those fans even includes a U.S. Secretary in Doug Collins.

Whether you are for or against the playoffs, they do take away from what is an incredible battle at the top.

Part of what makes this top four so intriguing at this stage is how different their seasons have been, and the multiple narratives they suit, despite being almost identical in total points.

Case in point; Hamlin leads the Cup Series with four wins this season, while Larson sits in a three-way tie for second with three. Meanwhile, Elliott and Byron have just one win each this season, both on superspeedways, yet the two of them lead all drivers in points scored this season, with top-notch consistency. Elliott also has zero DNFs and an incredible average finish of 10.14.

With these four drivers, you suit the crowd of fans who want full-season consistency to prevail, and the opposite crowd who want wins to matter above all else. It's a great, direct clash of ideology, despite all the drivers still ending up at the same point of the road.

Is it fair to say these four drivers are the most likely to make the Championship 4? Probably, because they've been the best for most of the year. But as Hamlin implied on his podcast, Actions Detrimental, all it takes is one ill-timed caution, a mechanical failure at the wrong time, or an unexpected winner, and your entire season is over.

There have been rumors of future tweaks, but this is largely what we've got, although it hasn't stopped people from making suggestions, even as just a compromise. But at the end of the day, this is what NASCAR wants, because they've doubled down, tripled down, and quadrupled down on this format, even as recently as the start of this season.

For now, all that drivers, and a large corner of the fanbase, have left to do is see how it plays out, and hope that the final result of this tight regular season battle eventually leads to a "deserving" champion being crowned.