23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace entered the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway sitting above the provisional NASCAR Cup Series playoff cut line, but his summer stretch of races had been far from ideal. His seventh place finish at Dover Motor Speedway the previous week was his first finish inside the top 20 in more than a month.
He had lost a ton of ground to the cut line during that rough stretch, and what looked like it was going to be a career year was on the verge of turning sour. All he really needed to find himself on the outside looking in was another upset winner over the course of the regular season's final five races.
The Cup Series did indeed get an upset winner. But it was Wallace himself. And with that, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota, who hadn't won in nearly three years, is locked into the playoffs.
And that's bad news for RFK Racing's Ryan Preece.
Wallace and Preece have been the two drivers battling for that 16th and final playoff spot, one of four remaining spots held by non-winners, above the cut line for the past several weeks. Yes, Wallace was already in that 16th spot before his win, but he is now one of 13 winners and has vaulted above the other three non-winners in the playoff picture.
So that cut line has now moved up, and Preece suddenly finds himself 42 points below where he needs to be, likely meaning he needs to win to have a chance to clinch what would be his first career playoff berth.
It's an interesting spot for Preece, not only because he is fighting for his playoff life, but because of how he got here. Had he not been stripped of his second place finish at Talladega Superspeedway in April, we'd probably be having a different discussion.
But teammate Chris Buescher, the driver who now occupies the third and final non-winner spot above the cutoff, was also docked 60 points at Kansas Speedway back in May. However, an RFK Racing appeal led to that penalty being reduced to 30 points, and as the current 42-point margin shows, that 30-point gain could be crucial.
The other two drivers above the cut line on points are 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick and Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman. Reddick is 138 points above the cutoff while Bowman is 63 ahead, placing him 21 ahead of Buescher. That 21-point gap could prove crucial should another surprise winner emerge and further shift the cut line.
It's entirely possible, too, given the fact that the final four races of the regular season include two short oval races, a road course race, and a superspeedway race. Oh, and seven full-time drivers who won last year have yet to win in 2025, including four who are currently 24th or lower in points and thus well below the cut line.
As it stands, the cut line resides between the drivers in 10th and 14th.
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