23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace has had a career year so far in 2025, even as he still seeks his first NASCAR Cup Series victory since 2022. He had a strong start to the year and has been well above the playoff cut line for pretty much the entire way, and we are now 19 races into the 26-race regular season.
But as more and more winners have emerged, with 12 having catapulted to the top of the playoff picture thus far, Wallace's playoff spot has become less and less secure, and that's not exactly welcome news for a driver whose lone playoff spot (2023) came because another driver (Chase Elliott) was injured, if you look at the overall points per race averages.
Wallace's Chicago weekend could not have gone worse. After being the fastest driver in practice, he had a disastrous qualifying session featuring multiple miscues. Still, he found himself in contention for a top 10 finish late in Sunday's race before getting way too aggressive with Alex Bowman.
Instead of taking a solid points day, Wallace spun out and finished in 28th place, while Bowman was scored in eighth. Bowman initially thought Wallace would be upset with the way he raced him, but he was pleasantly surprised to find out that that was not the case.
It's getting physical in this In-Season Challenge matchup between @BubbaWallace and @Alex_Bowman! 💥 pic.twitter.com/fQb9EpTKD9
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 6, 2025
Bubba Wallace and Alex Bowman post-race at NASCAR Chicago #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/wut7miTsr5
— Global Trends (@Global_Trends10) July 6, 2025
Wallace was on older tires, so he was bound to lose the position, and by pushing too hard to retain his position, he really didn't give Bowman the opportunity to race him cleanly on the tight streets of the Windy City.
Perhaps some of that was due to the fact that Wallace and Bowman happened to be matched up against one another in the in-season tournament. But even Denny Hamlin called out his own driver for playing "grabass" with Bowman.
And it may have undone his entire season, when it's all said and done.
Given the fact that there are 26 regular season races and points battles often come down to narrow margins, we don't want to overreact to every little thing that happens, because we'd be taking about hundreds of "meaningless" things that happen each race.
But after the ill-advised decision, which admittedly did produce a heck of a battle that most fans thoroughly enjoyed watching, Wallace is now just two points above the playoff cut line after looking like a playoff lock just a few weeks ago.
Simply by taking what was on offer in Chicago, even if it meant conceding the spot to his longtime rival one week after Bowman did Wallace a huge favor, he could still be close to 20 points ahead of RFK Racing's Ryan Preece for the 16th and final spot in the provisional playoff picture.
With seven more races remaining on the regular season schedule, Wallace needs all the points he can get if he doesn't win, since there will likely be more winners to push up the cut line even further.
Let's not forget that only three years ago, fourth-place Martin Truex Jr. missed the playoffs because he didn't win, and had Kurt Busch not withdrawn due to injury, third-place Ryan Blaney would have missed out as well.
Sonoma Raceway is scheduled to host this weekend's race, the Toyota/Save Mart 350. TNT Sports is set to provide live coverage starting at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 13.