It's anyone's guess as to who will bring home the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship trophy this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway, with all four drivers in this year's Championship 4 being so evenly matched.
Each one – William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Larson – has a uniquely compelling case. It's not hard to envision any one of the four being crowned this year's champion.
Of the four title contenders, Briscoe is the most intriguing. Nobody ever thought he'd be here, and now that might be the only thing stopping him from being considered the favorite.
Chase Briscoe can end his storybook 2025 season with the most stunning championship in decades
When it was announced that Briscoe would be moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, no one knew what to make of the expectations for him. He won twice with Stewart-Haas Racing between 2021 and 2024, but he was wildly inconsistent and never seemed to string stretches of good runs together for more than a few weeks at a time.
In the first half of 2025, he looked like the same Briscoe of previous years, only on a better team. He was blazing fast in qualifying, but it seldom translated to race day. He was 11th in points through 16 races, with five top five finishes but even more runs in which he was a complete non-factor.
Then, something clicked. Briscoe won at Pocono Raceway on fuel strategy, and he hasn't looked back. He now has three wins, 15 top five finishes, which leads the series, a 12.5 average finish (second), and 881 laps led (third). Ever since late June, he's been as good as any driver in NASCAR, and now he's set to race for a shot at a title at a track where he earned his first career win in March 2022.
Still, making the Championship 4 is one thing; winning it is another. Briscoe is the only one of the four drivers remaining who has never been in this position, and he's by far the least experienced. He has five career wins, while Byron, Hamlin, and Larson have each achieved that total in a single season at least once.
From a career-long resume standpoint, a Briscoe title would be the most shocking the Cup Series has seen since Brad Keselowski's meteoric rise in 2012, perhaps even since Alan Kulwicki's triumph in 1992. This is a driver for whom, until about four months ago, the jury was still out regarding whether he was anything more than slightly above average.
But he can do it. He's playing with house money, and after coming this far, what more is a little bit farther?