The NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 field is set, with William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Larson all set to compete for a title at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday.
It's anyone's guess as to who will bring home the trophy, with all four drivers being so evenly matched and each one having a uniquely compelling case. It's not difficult to see a world playing out in which any one of the four is crowned 2025 Cup Series champion.
For Hamlin, a blown engine at Martinsville Speedway in Sunday's Xfinity 500 ended his afternoon with a 35th place finish. But the race meant nothing for him after he had already punched his ticket to Phoenix with a win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and he might've ended the afternoon as the biggest winner of all.
With no Team Penske or Christopher Bell in his way, Denny Hamlin has the easiest title path he could've asked for
Of the four drivers remaining in the championship hunt, Hamlin should be considered the favorite at Phoenix. He finished second there in the spring, losing by only half a car length to Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell.
Bell was in a tight battle with Larson at Martinsville for a shot to advance to the title race on points, but the Hendrick Motorsports driver got the better of him. He won't be in Hamlin's way on Sunday, and nor will his two even bigger threats, Ryan Blaney or Joey Logano.
Had Blaney won at Martinsville for the third fall race in a row to clinch his spot in the Championship 4, which he nearly did despite starting 31st, he would have become the heavy favorite. Ditto Logano, who has been next to unbeatable at Phoenix when he's arrived there in title contention.
Instead, an organization besides Team Penske will be taking home the big trophy for the first time in four years. It will be either Hendrick or Gibbs, and Gibbs hasn't won a Cup Series championship since Kyle Busch's second triumph in 2019. Hamlin or Briscoe could both change that, and given recent history at Phoenix, the Toyota team will likely have the leg up on its Chevrolet opponent.
Briscoe figures to be Hamlin's biggest threat, especially given his own success at Phoenix, winning there in 2022 driving for Stewart-Haas Racing. Still, his lack of experience in championship situations makes it hard to give him the advantage, while his veteran teammate has waited a lifetime for an opportunity like this.
Hamlin hasn't been in this ideal of a situation entering a season's last race was in 2010, when he led the points standings prior to the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He spun out early and never recovered while Jimmie Johnson pounced to capture his fifth consecutive title, back then under the Chase for the Cup format.
Hamlin has qualified for the Championship 4 four times prior to this year, but on each occasion, someone had him clearly outmatched. That's not the case this time around, and it's why he can't let this opportunity slip away. If he's ever going to win the title, now is the time.