If you're looking for a random and scientifically meaningless trend to base your pick on for this Sunday's 109th running of the Indy 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, look no further than Helio Castroneves' history in the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing" in years that have also seen new U.S. presidents inaugurated.
Castroneves made his Indy 500 debut in 2001, which is when George W. Bush became the 43rd president of the United States. He won the race as a rookie that year.
In 2009, Barack Obama became the 44th, and Castroneves, who also won in 2002, won it for a third time. Skip ahead to 2017, when Donald Trump became the 45th president, and Castroneves finished in second place behind Takuma Sato in a late shootout, despite Chevrolet facing a significant deficit to Honda and Castroneves' own car having taken damage in an early incident.
Then in 2021, after Joe Biden was inaugurated and became the 46th, Castroneves joined the four-time winners' club.
Those are results of first, first, second, and first place in new president inauguration years.
And by the way, the only non-win came during a Trump year. Now Castroneves has another chance to change that, as Trump is back in office after having been inaugurated as the 47th president in January, making him only the second president in the history of the United States to be inaugurated for non-consecutive terms.
That 1-1-2-1 string looks a whole lot like Alex Palou's stretch of races to start the 2025 IndyCar season. Palou is sitting one step further, in fact, at 1-1-2-1-1, meaning that if his trend were to continue, he would technically be slated to finish Sunday's 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Speedway, Indiana oval in second place.
Who placed second behind Castroneves in 2021? None other than Alex Palou.
Castroneves is set to start Sunday afternoon's race in 22nd place, and while he's never won from that far back, his first two wins did come from double digit starting positions. Additionally, his 2017 runner-up finish came from 19th.
"I appreciate you bringing that up," Castroneves told Beyond the Flag, "because I didn't know where I started that one [2017], and we were in deficit, by the way. I remember Honda was super, super strong that year, and we just kept pushing.
"I don't think the starting position here matters because it's such a long race. We just got to make sure that – this is a team sport; it's not only about in my hands – it's important for us to make fewer mistakes everywhere, my end and the team’s perspective as well so that we can put ourselves in a good position to be better in the end."
Castroneves' most recent win came from eighth, and while the cars do remain very similar to what they were in 2021, the introduction of the new hybrid has changed things a little bit.
"Technically it should be similar, but it's not, and because of the 120-pound addition on the rear of the car, it does make it a little bit more complicated to find this special balance," he said. "You can actually run comfortable, but it won't be as easy to follow, and then you can actually make it a little more comfortable to follow, but it won't be as easy to lead.
"There are a lot of scenarios that you got to go back and forth, and you have some very fast cars, too."
A victory would make him the race's first ever five-time winner, breaking a tie with A.J. Foyt, Al Unser, and Rick Mears, and it would also make him the oldest ever Indy 500 winner at the age of 50, breaking Unser's record of 47.
Prior to Castroneves' fourth Indy 500 win in 2021, the four-time winners' club had not seen a new member since Mears won in 1991.
Fox is set to provide live coverage of the 109th running of the Indy 500 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway starting at 10:00 a.m. ET this Sunday, May 25. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the "Racing Capital of the World"!