For the sixth year in a row, Phoenix Raceway is scheduled to host the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 this weekend, and the championship battle is set to feature Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe, as well as Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson.
When Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the title decider prior to 2020, it did not host a race earlier in the season. But Phoenix continued to host its early-season race even when it became the host of the Championship 4.
Back in March, it was Hamlin who led the Championship 4 drivers with a second place finish behind teammate Christopher Bell. Larson finished third, Byron finished sixth, and Briscoe crashed out and was scored in 35th.
But from 2020 to 2024, the eventual Championship 4 driver who finished tops among the four eventual Championship 4 drivers in the March race did not win the championship, making such drivers 0-for-5 heading into Sunday's 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval.
Is this a bad sign for Denny Hamlin?
In 2020, Joey Logano won at Phoenix in March, while Chase Elliott was second among the eventual Championship 4 drivers in seventh place. But Elliott won the championship (and the race itself) in November, and Logano could only finish third, with Brad Keselowski, who placed 11th in March, placing runner-up in the title fight.
In 2021, Martin Truex Jr. won there in March, while Kyle Larson was fourth (last) among the eventual Championship 4 drivers in seventh place. But Larson won the championship (and the race itself) in November, with Truex having to settle for second both in the race and in the title fight.
That story continued in 2022. Logano finished eighth in the March race, second among eventual Championship 4 drivers behind Christopher Bell in second place. But he won his second championship by winning the November race, with Bell only in 10th, third highest among the title contenders with Ross Chastain securing second with a third place effort.
In 2023, the eventual Championship 4 drivers all finished in the top six at Phoenix in March, led by William Byron taking the checkered flag. But it was March runner-up Ryan Blaney who won the championship with a second place finish in November. Fourth place for Byron was only good enough for third in the title fight, with Larson placing third and thus finishing second.
Then in 2024, Logano crashed out at Phoenix in March, while Blaney led the eventual Championship 4 group with a fifth place finish. Skip ahead to November, and it was Logano leading Blaney across the finish line with a Team Penske 1-2 finish in the race and the championship.
So history doesn't favor Hamlin, who owns the most wins (60) all-time without a championship, if we base it on how Phoenix's races have played out since it began hosting the Championship 4 in 2020.
Hamlin is the only two-time Phoenix winner among this year's Championship 4, having won there in 2012 and 2019. But the other three drivers in the title fight have also won in the desert, and their wins have all come more recently, with Larson winning in 2021, Briscoe winning in 2022, and Byron winning in 2023.
Tune in to NBC this Sunday, November 2 at 3:00 p.m. ET for live coverage of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race from Phoenix Raceway to see who will emerge as the 2025 champion. If you have not yet had a chance to do so, start a free trial of FuboTV today and don't miss any of the action from the Copper State!