For the first time since the 2010 Formula 1 season, there are more than two drivers still eligible to win the world championship heading into the season finale.
The three title contenders have all won seven of the season's first 23 races. McLaren's Lando Norris leads the way by 12 points over Red Bull's Max Verstappen, who was at one point 104 points behind McLaren's Oscar Piastri. Piastri is 16 points behind Norris.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Norris, who was the preseason world championship favorite, is listed as the favorite to win the title at -260. Verstappen, who was a +8000 longshot just a few months ago, is listed at +190 to win his fifth consecutive world title. Piastri, who had been the favorite (and the world championship leader) for much of the year, is listed at +1200.
Sure, it's a three-way battle, and sure, Verstappen's insane comeback has effectively made him the 2025 season's big winner, whether he emerges as world champion for a fifth time on Sunday or not. But the title is still Norris' to lose.
Here's every possible way he can lose it.
Every way Lando Norris can lose the F1 world championship
With a win, second place finish, or a third place finish...
Norris cannot lose the world championship.
With a fourth place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen wins the race.
With a fifth place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen wins the race.
With a sixth place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen wins the race, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri wins the race.
With a seventh place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen wins the race, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri wins the race.
*with a Verstappen runner-up finish, Norris and Verstappen would tie, and Norris would win the tiebreaker due to the fact that he has recorded more runner-up finishes than Verstappen in 2025.
With an eighth place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen finishes in the top two, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri wins the race.
With a ninth place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen finishes in the top three, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri wins the race.
*with a Piastri runner-up finish, Norris and Piastri would tie, and Norris would win the tiebreaker due to the fact that he has recorded more runner-up finishes than Piastri in 2025.
With a 10th place finish...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen finishes in the top three, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri finishes in the top two.
Without a points finish (11th or worse)...
Norris would finish behind Verstappen in the world championship if Verstappen finishes in the top three, and he would finish behind Piastri in the world championship if Piastri finishes in the top two.
*with a Verstappen fourth place finish, Norris and Verstappen would tie, and Norris would win the tiebreaker due to the fact that he has recorded more runner-up finishes than Verstappen in 2025.
All things considered, Norris is the only driver who controls his own destiny. But the momentum is with Verstappen, and it was actually Piastri who had an outright pace advantage over both this past weekend in Qatar.
Anything can happen, and it might very well take all 58 laps this weekend like it did in 2021, when the world championship battle most recently came down to the Abu Dhabi season finale.
ESPN is set to provide live coverage of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix from Yas Marina Circuit beginning at 7:55 a.m. ET this Sunday, December 7. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from round 24 of a record-breaking 24 on the 2025 Formula 1 calendar!