Ever since the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs were first introduced in 2004, no team has gamed the system like Hendrick Motorsports.
During Jimmie Johnson's streak of five consecutive titles between 2006 and 2010, and an all-time record-tying seven overall, the script was always the same. Start out hot. Then, spend a few months over the summer strategizing for the playoffs, being willing to sacrifice some results in the process. Then, once September hits, go full scorched-Earth.
It's a strategy that's carried over to Hendrick's current crop of stars in Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and William Byron, though without as much title success in the less predictable elimination format. In 2025, the team once again hit a midseason lull, and many expected that would end the moment the green flag dropped at Darlington Raceway for the playoff opener.
Not so fast.
It turns out, Hendrick Motorsports might actually be struggling
In Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500, HMS finished 17th (Elliott), 19th (Larson), 21st (Byron), and 31st (Alex Bowman). Of the four, Larson was the only one who had an average running position better than 15th. It was, without exaggeration, one of the team's worst showings in years.
As a result, Bowman is tied for last in points among the playoff drivers and Elliott is only nine markers above the cut line to advance to the second round. Larson and Byron should be safe for this round, given the playoff points they've accumulated, but can they still be considered championship favorites? That's much less certain.
Larson racked up three wins in the season's first 12 races, but since then, he's led a grand total of 70 laps. Byron won at Iowa Speedway last month in a pit strategy derby, but that's the only one of the past 12 races in which he's led a significant chunk. Elliott, meanwhile, has had one race all season in which he's paced the field for more than 50 circuits.
Simply put, Hendrick has not been bringing dominant speed to the track for months now, and the idea that the team would magically flip a switch in the fall was never a guarantee. Darlington has been a track where the organization, especially Larson, has always excelled. In the Cup Series' April trip to South Carolina, Byron nearly went wire-to-wire, leading the first 243 of 297 laps before finishing second.
Maybe this no-show will be the wakeup call Hendrick needs, but next Sunday the Cup Series heads to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, a track where the team has placed only one driver in the top five (Larson finished fourth in 2023) since it was added to the schedule in 2022.
It's not looking great. If Hendrick Motorsports don't return to their winning ways at Bristol Motor Speedway the weekend after next, where Larson has led a combined 873 of 1,000 laps in the past two races, then it's officially panic time. And by that point, it might be too late to save some of their drivers.