The start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is now just days away, with Darlington Raceway scheduled to host the opening race of the four-round, 10-race postseason this coming Sunday evening.
There are 16 drivers still eligible to win the championship heading into Sunday night's 367-lap Cook Out Southern 500 around the four-turn, 1.366-mile (2.198-kilometer) egg-shaped oval in Darlington, South Carolina.
After the first three playoff races, that number is set to drop to 12. After the next three, that number is set to drop to eight. And after the next three, Phoenix Raceway is scheduled to host the winner-take-all Championship 4.
We did a little digging into several trends, some inherently more significant than others (and some a lot more specific than some of the more generic ones), when it comes to the modern playoff format (2014 to present) to whittle this year's 16-driver postseason field down to one.
Who does history say will walk away with this year's NASCAR Cup Series crown?
Note that if a driver has already been "eliminated", we aren't going to eliminate them again using further criteria. Several drivers would obviously be eliminated by multiple criteria. Note that all criteria pertain exclusively to the modern playoff era.
Let's get started.
No champion has ever had a winless regular season.
The points battle between 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick and Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman was cool, but it probably won't matter.
No champion has ever finished the regular season outside the top 15 in points.
Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry was 21st, Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen was 25th, and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon was 26th.
We took the liberty of excluding Kyle Busch's 2015 championship-winning season from this bullet point since he was injured for the first 11 races and would have been well inside the top 15 had he run all 26 races.
No driver has won back-to-back championships.
This is bad news for Team Penske's Joey Logano, who ironically has six Championship 4 appearances in the six even-numbered years since 2014 but none in the five odd-numbered years.
No driver has won the championship after winning the regular season finale.
Or any of the regular season's final three races, in fact. Does momentum really matter? If not, Team Penske's Ryan Blaney could be in trouble.
No driver has won the Daytona 500 and the championship in the same year.
Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron was already down this road once last year. It hasn't happened since 2013, when Jimmie Johnson pulled it off under the old playoff format.
No driver has entered a championship-winning season with a win drought of over 46 races.
23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace entered the 2025 season on a 79-race win drought, and it didn't end until it reached 100.
No driver has won a championship after entering the playoffs on a win drought of more than 21 races.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell won three of the season's first four races, but he hasn't won in 22 attempts since. Not ideal.
No driver has won a championship with a regular season average finish of worse than 19th.
I'm sort of surprised Team Penske's Austin Cindric is still standing at this point, but not anymore. With his average finish of 19.7, it's amazing he's in the top 15 in total points (with a penalty, too).
No driver has won a championship after leading fewer than 264 laps during the regular season.
Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain has only been out front for 69 laps this year.
Ok, now we're down to four. And to narrow it down, we had to get really specific.
No driver has won the championship after winning the sixth, seventh, ninth, 13th, or 21st races on the regular season schedule.
This may seem oddly specific, but considering only two drivers combined to win these exact five races in 2025, maybe there's something to it.
Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson won at Homestead-Miami Speedway (sixth), Bristol Motor Speedway (ninth), and Kansas Speedway (13th). Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin won at Darlington Raceway (seventh) and Dover Motor Speedway (21st).
And then there were two, and both happen to be named Chase.
No driver has won a championship in the No. 19 car.
Considering how things have managed to unravel for the driver of the No. 19 car on so many occasions in past postseasons, there might actually be something to the trend that eliminates Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe.
Whether it was the phantom debris caution and ensuing restart that cost Carl Edwards in 2016, Martin Truex Jr.'s pit crew mixing up their left and ride side tires after a dominant 2019 season, Guido showing up in Kyle Larson's pit box for the final stop of the day to ultimately rob Truex in 2021, or Truex's season completely unraveling after winning the 2023 regular season championship, the No. 19 car has simply not gotten it done when it counts.
2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion: Chase Elliott
And there you have it. Based on these 11 trends that have been active since the modern playoff format was introduced 11 years ago, Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott should be the driver celebrating his second championship at Phoenix in early November.
Meaningless for 2025? Maybe. After all, who knows what other trends the 2025 playoffs may give NASCAR fans to work with? Some of these, of course, would not have been exactly as they are now even just 12 months ago.
Tune in to USA Network this Sunday, August 31 at 6:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Cook Out Southern 500 from Darlington Raceway. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!