The next time you hear a fan – and I'm not just talking about NASCAR fans – use the phrase "getting hot at the right time" or "getting cold at the right time", ask them what, exactly, is the right time.
It sure isn't the summer stretch of a Cup Series season.
Several very valid points have been made about the struggles of Kyle Larson, who remains winless since dominating the race at Kansas Speedway back in mid-May.
Ever since his failed Memorial Day Double attempt, which ironically saw him complete fewer miles of the Indy 500 and Coca-Cola 600 combined than most drivers who only ran the latter, he has been mediocre at best, and he has almost seemed like a shell of his past self.
In addition to Kansas, he dominated at Bristol Motor Speedway in the spring. He wasn't a contender for the win at either track in the playoffs.
Yet the idea that he was "cold at the wrong time" was always a joke when you consider just how NASCAR determines its champions and goes about progressing through its playoffs.
Kyle Larson's summer struggles meant nothing
Despite being "invisible", as some would say, for three and a half months to wrap up the regular season, Larson entered the playoffs tied for the most playoff points, thanks to a combination of his regular season race wins, regular season stage wins, and regular season points finish.
It was always going to take a complete meltdown, worse than anything he had endured even during his rough regular season stretch, to produce an early playoff exit.
Sure, he's still winless in the playoffs. But since the start of the round of 12, he hasn't finished lower than seventh, and he now has back-to-back runner-up finishes to position himself as the top driver not yet locked into the Championship 4 on points with two races remaining in the round of 8 at Talladega Superspeedway and Martinsville Speedway.
So no, he wasn't "cold at the wrong time" simply because he wasn't clicking off multi-race winning streaks in the middle of July.
We've seen this story before, however; Larson is not the first to disprove this convenient yet totally inaccurate go-to narrative. Kyle Busch made the Championship 4 in 2019 without a win since early June and won the season finale to capture his second title.
Kevin Harvick entered the 2014 playoffs on an 18-race win drought. Jimmie Johnson entered the 2016 playoffs on a 21-race win drought, including a six-race stretch of finishes lower than 12th late in the regular season.
Joey Logano entered the playoffs with only a single win in 2018 and 2024, same as Ryan Blaney in 2023. Logano endured a stretch of four straight results of 19th or lower, including three outside the top 30, late in the 2024 regular season.
All went on to become champions, and those are just a couple of notable examples of cold stretches that supposedly happened at the "wrong time" but really didn't matter anyway during the modern playoff era.
Likewise, how many times have we seen drivers supposedly "getting hot at the right time" in July or August, only to sputter come playoff time?
Playoff debate aside, the fact remains that three-race playoff rounds create an extreme level of volatility when it comes to who advances and who doesn't. Sure, playoff points help come playoff time, meaning that regular season success (or lack thereof) still do count, but if you have a disastrous round, a couple of regular season wins do you no good.
On the flip side, if you have a great round, fans citing your run of 22nd and 23rd place finishes in June as the reason you can't win the championship probably won't continue that. It's no different than fans pointing to a late August losing streak as the reason an MLB team supposedly can't win the World Series.
After Denny Hamlin locked himself into the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway for the first time since 2021 by winning this past Sunday's race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Larson is one of seven drivers set to battle for the three remaining spots in the winner-take-all round over the final two races on this year's round of 8 schedule at Talladega and Martinsville.
This coming Sunday's YellaWood 500 is set to be shown live on NBC from Talladega beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET, so start a free trial of FuboTV now and be sure to catch all of the action!