Many NASCAR fans probably could've guessed it as soon as Kyle Larson took the lead from Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman for the lead on lap 40 of Sunday's Food City 500 Cup Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway, especially after what happened in September's race at the track.
Larson was never passed for the lead after that, only relinquishing the top spot during pit stops, and led a total of 411 of the 500 laps around the four-turn, 0.533-mile (0.858-kilometer) Bristol, Tennesse oval en route to his second win of the 2025 season. Larson led 462 of 500 laps at the "Last Great Colosseum" in September.
Because the win was his second of the year, he is now officially locked into the playoffs. There can technically be more winners than playoff spots, so this early in the season, a driver is only mathematically locked in by winning twice, since there can be no more than 13 multi-race winners during the 26-race regular season.
The 16 playoff spots go to the regular season champion, whether he wins a race or not, and the 15 drivers who rank highest in wins.
Kyle Larson not the big winner at Bristol
But even had Larson gone the entire rest of the 2025 regular season without a second win, he probably wouldn't have had to worry about missing the playoffs, even if there do end up being 17 or 18 winners. Why? Because in the event that there are more winners than spots, the tiebreaker to determine which single-race winners and in and which aren't becomes points.
Larson finds himself in fourth place in the point standings, so even aside from the fact that getting more than 16 regular season winners was already unlikely, he was not exactly at risk of being the odd man out.
Who is at risk, however, is Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry. The Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner is one of two drivers with just one win this season, the other being points leader William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports.
But while Byron, Larson, and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, who have three and two wins, respectively, are all in the top four in the point standings, Berry is all the way down in 17th.
Suffice it to say that if there do end up being more than 16 regular season winners, Berry could end up being a driver in a bit of a precarious situation, potentially losing out on a playoff berth if a points tiebreaker comes into play.
But with Larson winning on Sunday, another opportunity for a first-time winner was eliminated in 2025. There have still been just five winners through nine races, and Larson's win further lessened the chance of there being more than 16 winners during the regular season.
Berry may not quite be mathematically locked in yet, but Sunday's result, even beyond the fact that P12 was his best result since his Las Vegas win, was music to his ears.
The 10th race on the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is the Jack Link's 500, which is set to be shown live on Fox from Talladega Superspeedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 27, as the Cup Series has off for Easter. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss any of the action!