NASCAR championship favorite confirmed, and it's not Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson is the only former NASCAR Cup Series champion still in this year's playoffs, but he's not the favorite to win another title.
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR Cup Series
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR Cup Series | Jared C. Tilton/GettyImages

Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson are set to join Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway following this past Sunday's race at Martinsville Speedway.

Byron won the round of 8 finale from below the cut line to lock himself into the Championship 4, and Larson was able to hold off Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell in a points battle to secure the fourth and final spot in the winner-take-all round.

This year's Championship 4 is largely viewed as one of the most evenly matched Championship 4 rounds of the modern playoff era, which goes back to 2014. All remaining title contenders are former Phoenix winners, and there is no prohibitive favorite to raise the trophy this weekend.

But a favorite has indeed emerged at FanDuel Sportsbook, and it's not Larson, the only former champion of the group.

Denny Hamlin emerges as NASCAR championship favorite

Hamlin, the oldest active full-time driver in the series and the only two-time Phoenix winner among the Championship 4 field, is listed at +200 to win the 2025 championship. He is listed ahead of Larson at +260, Byron at +270, and Briscoe at +380.

Hamlin won at Phoenix in 2012 and 2019. Larson won there in 2021 to win the championship, while Briscoe earned his first career win there in 2022. Byron won there in 2023.

Make note of the fact that these are not the odds for each of these four drivers to actually win Sunday's race. The highest finisher of the four is crowned champion, which does not necessarily mean the champion has to win.

Hamlin is listed as the favorite to win the race at +300, and it's actually Byron who is listed second at +430, ahead of Larson at +500 and Briscoe at +650. Team Penske's Ryan Blaney is the highest non-championship eligible driver at +700.

Full NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds can be found here and are always subject to change.

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is scheduled to be shown live on NBC from Phoenix Raceway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 2. If you have yet to take the opportunity to start a free trial of FuboTV, do so today and don't miss any of the action!