Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson spent the entire summer as the outright favorite to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship favorite, despite a relatively mediocre stretch of races by his standards, but he was later joined by Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin atop the list.
Hamlin later established himself as the outright favorite during the opening round of the playoffs, and he appeared to solidify that status with his series-leading fifth win of the year at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.
That win also gave him a series-high 34 playoff points, meaning that in addition to vaulting him to the top of the standings, it also effectively guaranteed him the points lead to start the round of 12.
Larson and teammate William Byron had been atop the series with 32 playoff points each, meaning they are set to start the second round with 3,032 points behind Hamlin's 3,034 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend.
Yet Hamlin is suddenly no longer the championship favorite.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Larson and Team Penske's Ryan Blaney are now co-favorites to win the title at +450, ahead of Hamlin at +500.
It marks the first time all year that Blaney has been listed at the top, but given Team Penske's track record (three for three, including Blaney in 2023) in terms of winning championships during the Next Gen era, the No. 12 team is hard to ignore.
Blaney won the 2023 title after a 13th place finish in the regular season standings, and Joey Logano won last year's title after a 15th place finish in regular season points, so Team Penske have shown they know how to win when it counts, especially at Phoenix Raceway in the season finale.
And this year, Blaney has been much stronger. He finished the regular season second in points, and in terms of total points scored (without playoff resets), he's still second, trailing only Byron.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell is listed at +550, just ahead of Byron at +650 to round out the top five favorites.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
The Mobil 1 301 is set to get the round of 12 underway this Sunday, September 21 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. USA Network's live coverage is set to begin at 2:00 p.m. ET, so begin a free trial of FuboTV today and don't miss it!