Yes, I know it's an odd-numbered year. It's been that way for almost nine and a half months dating back to January 1. I don't need the reminder.
Still, this feels like deja vu; here we go again.
Had Denny Hamlin not run his own driver, Bubba Wallace, up the race track on the final lap at Kansas Speedway two weekends ago, Wallace would be in the round of 8, and Joey Logano would be out.
Had Hamlin not passed Ross Chastain on the final lap at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval this past weekend, setting up a last-lap melee that ultimately made the gap between Logano and Chastain larger than it really was, Chastain would be in the round of 8, and Logano would be out.
Sources have been unable to confirm whether or not the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has officially been named Team Penske Employee of the Month for his heroism in getting Logano and the No. 22 team where literally nobody but Logano and the No. 22 team want them to be: back in the semifinal round of the playoffs, one win from the Championship 4 despite a regular season that, on points alone, would not have been good enough to even get into the postseason.
What they have been able to confirm, however, is that against all odds, Logano is alive and well in the mix to become only the fifth driver to win a fourth Cup Series championship.
It sounds eerily familiar.
Logano only made the playoffs last year with a five-overtime win over Zane Smith, who was last in points at the time, at Nashville Superspeedway; he actually wouldn't have even close had he been winless and needed to rely on his 15th place finish in the regular season standings.
Then he was literally eliminated at the Charlotte Roval, until Hendrick Motorsports and Alex Bowman's No. 48 team were caught with a violation in post-race technical inspection. Bowman's point reduction knocked him out, reinstated Logano, and Logano won his way to the Championship 4 the following weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
He basically had a two-week bye week before the Championship 4, and just like he did in 2018 and 2022 after winning the round of 8 opener, he parlayed that into a dominant championship-winning effort, doing so at Phoenix Raceway for the second time in three years.
Again, I know it's 2025. I know Logano is six-for-six in terms of getting to the Championship 4 in even-numbered years and has failed in all five attempts to get there in odd-numbered years. But doesn't it feel like he's perfectly set up to do it again and buck that trend?
That's why it's interesting, and somewhat eyebrow-raising, that Logano is now listed as NASCAR's championship underdog, or dare we say longshot, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
At +1000, Logano has the longest odds of the eight remaining playoff contenders to win the 2025 championship.
The other seven drivers are listed between +430 and +900, with the top six favorites all between +430 and +600.
Team Penske's Ryan Blaney is still the favorite at +430, followed by Hamlin at +450, Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson at +470, Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell at +500, and Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron at +600.
With +430 implying a 1-in-5.3 chance (technically less, considering there's always a house edge), it really is anybody's championship.
Sure, Logano is 24 points below the opening Championship 4 cut line due to his shortage of playoff points, placing him eighth out of eight.
But if you've learned anything from the past eight years, it's that Logano isn't here to points race; he's here to win. And history shows he's beyond capable of doing that at Las Vegas, Talladega Superspeedway, Martinsville, and Phoenix, particularly when his season is on the line.
All he needs is one good break to repeat history, and he and the No. 22 team have a habit of making that happen. Don't be surprised if that +1000 line shortens in the coming weeks.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds are available here and are always subject to change.
The round of 8 opener is set to be shown live on USA Network from Las Vegas Motor Speedway starting at 5:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 12. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss any of the action from the South Point 400!