Four-time Formula 1 world champion Max Verstappen turned a 104-point deficit to then-championship leader Oscar Piastri in late August into an 11-point advantage by the time the 2025 season wrapped up in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.
But he could only come oh-so-close to doing the same to the 70-point deficit he faced to Lando Norris at that same point, finishing just two points behind McLaren's newly crowned world champion after 30 races (24 Grands Prix plus six sprint races).
Norris entered the year as the world championship favorite; had Verstappen pulled it off, it would have been the third title of five that he won after entering the season as something other than the betting favorite to win the crown. Lewis Hamilton was the preseason favorite in both 2021 and 2022 before Verstappen won.
Still, Verstappen ended the year on a three-race win streak and with eight total victories, the most in the sport for the fifth year in a row, despite Red Bull once again placing third in the constructor championship.
He also ended the year on a 10-race podium streak, and with eight victories, he now has 71 for his career, good for third on the all-time list. Perhaps more impressively, he has 37 wins in years Red Bull did not win the constructor championship, breaking Michael Schumacher's record of 31.
Even in 2024, when he won nine races and became the first driver to win the world title for the third-place team in the constructor standings since Nelson Piquet in 1983, he never scored more than four straight podium finishes.
With 2026 in line to bring a new set of regulations that could cast a level of uncertainty over the pecking order, who are the favorites to lift the trophy come season's end?
To the surprise of more than a few, Verstappen is not the outright favorite, nor is he a co-favorite.
Max Verstappen not favored to reclaim F1 title in 2026
Instead, Norris is joined by Mercedes' George Russell at +250 to win the 2026 world championship at DraftKings Sportsbook. Verstappen is listed third at +275.
The fact that the odds for the favorites are so long, compared to past years, just goes to show that nobody really knows what to make of the way-too-early look at the new regulations.
Behind that trio are Piastri (+500), Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli (+900), Ferrari's Charles Leclerc (+2200), and Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso (+2500).
There has been plenty of speculation about Verstappen's future, and how the outcome of the 2026 season could determine his 2027 landing spot. How the Milton Keynes-based team perform in the first year of their partnership with Ford, following the end of their long-standing and ultra-successful Honda deal, could go a long way toward determining that.
As for Russell being tied with Norris, it does make sense considering the optimism surrounding the Mercedes power unit. Russell was also the only driver other than the "big three" to win a race in 2025, and he won twice, both times holding off Verstappen on raw pace.
It is, however, interesting that he is viewed so highly when Toto Wolff reportedly would have been willing to part ways with him had Verstappen become available for 2026.
Piastri being listed at +500 also makes sense. He proved that he can be a challenger in 2025, even if he is still the consensus number two driver at McLaren. Antonelli being listed next may raise some eyebrows, but he showed promise in his rookie season and should also stand to benefit from the Mercedes power unit.
Leclerc and Alonso might be the only longshots worth taking a flier on. Ferrari, for as much as they have become the butt of many jokes, did have a down year in 2025 after nearly winning the constructor title in 2024, but they were initially the team to beat when the most recent regulation overhaul went into effect back in 2022. Additionally, the two-time world champion Alonso being in an Adrian Newey-designed car could make things interesting.
Full Formula 1 world championship odds for 2026 can be found here and are always subject to change.
The Australian Grand Prix is scheduled to get the 2026 Formula 1 season underway on Sunday, March 8 at Albert Park Circuit.