Formula 1 has not experienced an offseason with this much uncertainty regarding what the pecking order might look like in quite some time, and that is thanks to the fact that the regulations changes between the 2025 and 2026 seasons are considered some of the biggest the sport has ever seen.
After having a clear leg up on the rest of the grid from mid-2024 through the end of the 2025 season, McLaren would have been the obvious pick to win a third consecutive world championship in 2026, especially given the advantage of the Mercedes power unit that has been hyped up for years leading into this new era.
That is indeed how things started, but the Woking-based team have since slipped down the order as the 2026 season has crept closer.
New F1 world championship favorite emerges for 2026
With Mercedes' George Russell now the outright favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook at +240 and teammate Kimi Antonelli listed fifth at +950, Mercedes have overtaken McLaren as the betting favorites to win the 2026 constructor championship. Mercedes finished second to McLaren in 2025, and by a whopping 364 points.
The Silver Arrows won eight consecutive constructor titles to begin the turbo hybrid era from 2014 to 2021 but have yet to win another one since.
Mercedes are listed at +125 to win the 2026 title, ahead of McLaren at +190. Despite McLaren being listed second, their top driver, reigning world champion Lando Norris, is listed third on the driver side at +650, ahead of teammate Oscar Piastri at +850. Norris started the offseason as a +250 co-favorite with Russell.
Red Bull's Max Verstappen is listed as the second favorite on the driver side at +280, but with new teammate Isack Hadjar at +6500, Red Bull are only listed at +800 to win their first constructor title since 2023.
Red Bull finished third in the standings in 2024, making Verstappen the first driver for a team not inside the top two to win the world championship since 1983, and they finished third again in 2025, even with Verstappen missing out on what would have been a fifth consecutive world title by only two points after trailing by 104 just a few months prior.
Just behind Red Bull in fourth and fifth are Aston Martin and Ferrari at +900 and +1000, respectively.
The significant changes in the odds come amid optimism in both the Mercedes and Red Bull garages, while McLaren are rumored to no longer have the major advantage over the rest of the grid they had boasted since the middle of the 2024 season.
Full Formula 1 world championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Albert Park Circuit is scheduled to host the 2026 Formula 1 season-opening Australian Grand Prix on Sunday, March 8, with Apple TV set to provide live coverage for the first time.