Pegging a NASCAR Cup Series championship favorite is probably more challenging than it is in most other sports.
On one hand, it is not like racing series such as IndyCar or Formula 1, which use season-long points to crown a champion. It is more similar to the NFL or MLB, where regular season success doesn't always translate to postseason success.
But on another hand, you don't see NFL or MLB teams clinch playoff spots one or two weeks into the regular season like you do in the Cup Series. Additionally, Cup Series regular season success can translate directly to playoff success, due to the playoff points that are awarded to drivers for winning races and stages.
Entering the 2025 season, Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson was listed as the favorite to win a second title. Larson led all drivers in points scored and wins last season, despite missing a race, yet he missed the Championship 4 simply because he didn't win when he needed to win in the playoffs.
But after the first three races of the season, Kyle Larson is no longer the NASCAR Cup Series championship favorite.
After winning back-to-back races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Circuit of the Americas, Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell is now listed as the favorite to win the title at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is listed at +400, which is shorter than Larson was listed during the preseason.
Larson, the 2021 champion, is still second at +500, followed by teammate and Daytona 500 winner William Byron at +600. Rounding out the top five are Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, the 2023 champion, at +750, and Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, the winningest non-champion in series history, at +800.
Bell's status as the favorite is hard to argue against. He has won multiple races in four straight seasons, and he would have made it to a third consecutive Championship 4 last year had it not been for a post-race penalty in the round of 8 cutoff race at Martinsville Speedway. He has also emerged as a threat to win anywhere, and he has the team behind him to do just that.
Most importantly, he is a former winner at Phoenix Raceway, which has hosted the Championship 4 title decider each year since 2020 and is set to do so for the sixth year in a row this November.
Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, the 2020 series champion, and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick are both listed at +900, ahead of reigning and three-time champion Joey Logano of Team Penske at +1000.
Nobody else is listed with shorter odds than +2000.
Full odds, including some of the longshots, can be found here.
Race number four of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season could be the most important regular season race of the season for somebody like Bell, who has championship aspirations, as it is set to be contested at Phoenix. Fox is set to provide live coverage of the Shriners Children's 500 beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 9. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!