Formula 1: Red Bull driver change confirmed for 2025 season

Ahead of this weekend's Dutch Grand Prix at Circuit Zandvoort, Red Bull motorsport advisor Dr. Helmut Marko confirmed to Austrian paper Kleine Zeitung that there will be a driver change within the organization for the 2025 Formula 1 season.

Though he declined to name specifics of the change, he confirmed that reserve driver Liam Lawson is set for a full-time promotion next year.

The 22-year-old Kiwi finished in third place with four wins in the 2022 Formula 2 championship, and he impressed in his brief stint as the replacement for the injured Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull sister team RB (then known as AlphaTauri) late in the 2023 season, finishing higher than teammate Yuki Tsunoda in three of the four races in which they both competed.

The confirmation comes amid rumors that Sergio Perez, who recently extended his contract with the top team through 2026, could actually be replaced after the 2024 season, as well as rumors that Ricciardo, who is due to be out of a contract at the end of the year, could be replaced at RB alongside Tsunoda.

"In September, there will be a decision. Next year [Liam Lawson] will definitely be driving one of our cars."

- Dr. Helmut Marko

It was said all along that Red Bull had a September deadline to decide Lawson's future, and as the four-week summer break comes to an end this weekend, that deadline is fast approaching.

There are also ongoing rumors that three-time reigning world champion and current world championship leader Max Verstappen, despite his contractual ties to Red Bull through 2028, could be on his way to Mercedes, but it is believed that that cannot happen until 2026 at the earliest.

Liam Lawson: Red Bull or RB for 2025?

Marko's declaration confirms a driver change at Red Bull for next year, implying that either Perez or Ricciardo (or perhaps both) will be left on the outside looking in. Yuki Tsunoda's return to RB has already been confirmed.

Team principal Christian Horner clarified Marko's remarks and added that Red Bull could also technically loan Lawson out to another team. Either way, he is set for a promotion to Formula 1 next year, which would require him to displace another driver currently on the grid.

If that ride is indeed within the Red Bull organization, there are multiple possibilities to consider.

Should both Perez and Ricciardo be replaced for next year, it could open up the door for Red Bull to make a second change by promoting junior driver and current Formula 2 championship leader Isack Hadjar to one of their cars. Such a promotion would likely be to RB alongside Tsunoda, meaning that Lawson would replace Perez at Red Bull.

There is also a chance that Ricciardo himself could replace Perez, in which case Lawson would still be able to land at RB. Irrespective of what happens with Perez, it does appear that Ricciardo won't be back with RB in 2025, given his own ambitions and the fact that the team would like to go back to operating as somewhat of a junior team.

Lawson being promoted to the grid for 2025 means that there are set to be at least four rookies in the 20 seats next year, and he may not be the last.

Oliver Bearman is set to join Haas as Nico Hulkenberg's replacement, Jack Doohan is set to join Alpine as Esteban Ocon's replacement, and Kimi Antonelli is believed to be on his way to Mercedes as Lewis Hamilton's replacement.