IndyCar: Full standings without Penske scandal (a new contender?)

Had Scott McLaughlin not accidentally pressed the push-to-pass button on a single restart during the 2024 IndyCar season opener on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida six months ago today, his post-race penalty would have likely resembled that which was issued to Team Penske teammate Will Power – that is, had a penalty still been issued at all.

Both McLaughlin and teammate Josef Newgarden were found to have violated the push-to-pass parameters, with Newgarden winning the race after committing violations on three different occasions.

Six weeks later, after a fluke glitch in the system during warmup for the next points race on the streets of Long Beach, California, it was discovered that Team Penske retained access to the push-to-pass overtake system during the start and restarts, when it is meant to be disabled.

No other team had access, and Team Penske had taken advantage in St. Petersburg.

While McLaughlin claimed he simply made a mistake and Newgarden claimed he thought there was a rule change (and, believe it or not, his "too convenient to be believable" excuse was actually verified via in-race radio transmission), IndyCar dropped the hammer on the team for what amounted to blatant cheating.

McLaughlin was stripped of his third place finish and Newgarden was stripped of his win, and the drivers who finished behind them all moved up. McLaughlin lost all 35 of his points, while Newgarden lost 53 of his 54, retaining the one he had earned by (legally) taking the pole position.

Power moved up from fourth to second place, but he was still docked 10 points due to the fact that the No. 12 team did have unapproved access to the exploit (and because IndyCar didn't want Team Penske to, in a roundabout way, back into a championship with Power gaining eight points due to the team's own scandal). It ended up being a net loss of two points for Power.

Most notably, Chip Ganassi Racing's Alex Palou moved up from sixth to fourth place, giving him 32 points instead of 28. It marked a net gain of six points for Palou over Power, a net gain of 39 over McLaughlin, and a net gain of 57 over Newgarden.

What would the IndyCar championship look like?

Ahead of this coming Sunday afternoon's relocated season finale at Nashville Superspeedway, the first IndyCar race at the four-turn, 1.333-mile (2.145-kilometer) Lebanon, Tennessee oval since 2008, let's pause and look back at what the championship standings would look like had the scandal not occurred.

We are going to assume that Newgarden and McLaughlin would have finished in the same positions in St. Petersburg (because they indeed would have). We are also going to take some liberties and assume that their unfair advantage would not have been utilized in any way moving forward (which is admittedly somewhat of a major "if").

There would be a three-way championship battle heading into Sunday's 206-lap race. Instead of Palou leading Power by 33 points, with McLaughlin a further 17 points back and needing Palou to miss the race entirely to still have a chance at winning his first title this year, Palou would lead McLaughlin by only 11, and Power would be just 27 points out of the lead.

Newgarden, who has had a bit of a down year aside from earning his second straight Indy 500 win, would still not be a title contender.

Here is what the top 10 in the championship standings actually look like, 16 races into the 17-race season.

1 - Alex Palou - 525 (0)
2 - Will Power - 492 (-33)
3 - Scott McLaughlin - 475 (-50)
4 - Colton Herta - 462 (-63)
5 - Scott Dixon - 443 (-82)
6 - Pato O'Ward - 419 (-106)
7 - Kyle Kirkwood - 384 (-141)
8 - Josef Newgarden - 365 (-160)
9 - Alexander Rossi - 350 (-175)
10 - Santino Ferrucci - 339 (-186)

And there is what they would look like without the scandal.

1 - Alex Palou - 521 (0)
2 - Scott McLaughlin - 510 (-11)
3 - Will Power - 494 (-27)
4 - Colton Herta - 457 (-64)
5 - Scott Dixon - 439 (-82)
6 - Josef Newgarden - 418 (-103)
7 - Pato O'Ward - 409 (-112)
8 - Kyle Kirkwood - 382 (-139)
9 - Alexander Rossi - 346 (-175)
10 - Santino Ferrucci - 336 (-185)

If McLaughlin can make up 11 points on Palou, over whom he has already clinched the head-to-head wins tiebreaker, this weekend (and avoid losing 16 points to Power), the 2024 IndyCar season will officially be a season of "what could have been" for the 31-year-old New Zealander.

The Big Machine Music City Grand Prix is set to be broadcast live on NBC from Nashville Superspeedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, September 15. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss the 2024 IndyCar season finale!