Red Bull promoted Yuki Tsunoda to the main team shortly before this season's Japanese Grand Prix to replace the struggling Liam Lawson. However, the Japanese driver has also struggled during his tenure, just like Lawson, and just like Sergio Perez did during the latter stages of the 2024 Formula 1 campaign.
As F1 inches closer to the end of the 2025 season, it looks increasingly likely that Tsunoda faces a fate similar to that of Perez and Lawson, despite having clearly been more appreciated by the newly appointed team principal, Laurent Mekies. Honda's impending departure and move to Aston Martin does not help the 25-year-old either, given how they've supported him throughout his career.
Tsunoda would have a difficult time finding another full-time F1 seat for 2026, as not many teams have any openings. The only potential destination for him next season would appear to be Cadillac, but he does not seem to be one of their main targets at the moment.
Tsunoda faces the possibility of never getting an F1 seat again
In the event Tsunoda ends up without a seat next year, he could become a reserve driver. However, things would not get much easier heading into 2027, even as many drivers have contracts that are due to expire at the end of 2026, especially at quite a few midfield teams.
The biggest concern for Tsunoda is that he has not done much to stand out in his five-year career. His many points finishes during his time at RB are results that have shown they can be replicated by other emerging drivers, at least from the team’s point of view. Lawson and Isack Hadjar have both demonstrated that this year alone.
Honda has been a very big supporter of Tsunoda throughout his career, and odds are he would need that support if he were to land another seat in the future.
Aston Martin would be the obvious destination, but their sights are on drivers such as Max Verstappen and George Russell once Fernando Alonso’s contract ends. Lance Stroll is someone who appears to have a contract without an end, so his seat can't really be considered among the possibilities at this point.
With the number of talented drivers in Formula 2 and Formula 3, 2027 is a time when another large rookie class can be expected, similar to this year's group of six. As a result, Tsunoda would likely get overlooked, as the belief would be that these rookie drivers can produce equal or better results than the Japanese driver, and with higher upside.