At first glance, a 31-point deficit to the cut line in a round of 8 field as competitive as this one would make it seem like Ryan Blaney is in a must-win situation after a disappointing 38th place DNF at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
It was a completely different outcome for Blaney to start the round of 8 after he won the opening race of the round of 12 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
A blown left front tire late in stage one ended Blaney's race in "Sin City" prematurely and dropped him to last in the standings, meaning the driver once considered the championship favorite now faces an uphill battle at the next two playoff tracks, Talladega Superspeedway and Martinsville Speedway.
Although history is on Las Vegas winner Denny Hamlin's side after the veteran's history-making performance in the round of 8 opener, Blaney is not the only driver who is facing some adversity after William Byron's title hopes took a turn for the worse when he plowed into the back of Ty Dillon, who gave no warning that he was pitting.
However, unlike the three drivers who join Blaney below the cutline, Byron (-15), Chase Elliott (-23) and Joey Logano (-24), Blaney has had plenty of recent success at the next two tracks on the schedule which suggest he should not be counted out at all.
Ryan Blaney's title hopes are far from over
Three consecutive finishes of 20th place or worse at Talladega do not exactly jump off the page, but if you look at the bigger picture, Blaney is arguably the best driver on superspeedway/drafting tracks.
He has three wins at the four-turn, 2.66-mile (4.281-kilometer) high-banked Lincoln, Alabama oval and had a three-race stretch from the 2023 fall race to the 2024 fall race with one win and two runner-up finishes.
Logano (941) is the only driver to lead more laps than Blaney (474) in the past 35 drafting track races, per NASCAR Insights, but he has zero top 10 finishes in the seven most recent Talladega races and has been unable to capitalize on the speed as well as Blaney has.
Did you know:
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) October 15, 2025
Joey Logano has led laps in 33 of the last 35 drafting track races (since the 2019 Daytona 500) - including the last 17 straight
In these 35 races, Logano has led a total of 941 laps, nearly double any other driver, Ryan Blaney has the next most with 474 laps led pic.twitter.com/0ZCjVvbLnZ
If Blaney is unable to lock up his Championship 4 berth on the high banks of Talladega or improve his outlook going to Martinsville, the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) "Paperclip" in Ridgeway, Virginia may present him with his best opportunity to punch his ticket.
In 19 starts there, Blaney has 12 top 10 finishes, including five top five finishes in his seven most recent starts.
Even more impressive is Blaney's knack for rising to the occasion when his back is against the wall. Look no further than his wins in both the 2023 and 2024 cutoff races at Martinsville. Although he didn't start inside the top 10 in either race, he finished inside the top five in each stage before winning and locking himself into the Championship 4.
As someone known for great long-run speed anywhere the series goes, Blaney has an ability to manage his equipment and save his tires for the duration of a run at Martinsville that has made him difficult to slow down, especially in the cutoff races when the pressure is at its highest.
Elliott and Logano each have wins in the playoff races at Talladega and Martinsville, while Byron has not won at Talladega but has won at Martinsville during the regular season.
Any of them can easily win their way to the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway or at least have a shot at getting in on points if chaos ensues ahead of them, but if recent history is any indication, Blaney is the last driver of the quartet whom anyone else wants to face when the stakes are magnified.
The YellaWood 500 is scheduled to be shown live on NBC from Talladega Superspeedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 19. If you've yet to start a free trial of FuboTV, do so now and catch all of the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series playoff action!