Both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez started off the 2024 Formula 1 season in a strong fashion, but only the Dutch driver managed to continue his good form until the final race. Sergio Perez, on the other hand, began struggling mightily, and it eventually cost Red Bull a third straight constructor championship.
Red Bull’s main focus was to look internally for the Mexican driver’s replacement, and the main names mentioned were Daniel Ricciardo and Liam Lawson. However, to the shock of many, Red Bull decided to hand Perez a new contract in the middle of the year.
That contract effectively made Christian Horner shy away from the thought of signing Carlos Sainz Jr., whose long saga of picking his new team ultimately ended with him at Williams.
Despite a strong stint from Sainz at Ferrari, it seemingly was not enough for Horner and Helmut Marko. Chances are the Spanish driver’s tenure at sister team Toro Rosso from 2015 to 2017 had some impact on the decision made.
Red Bull’s mistake already catching up to them
But Perez's new "contract" didn't pan out itself.
His performance was re-assessed once the 2024 season concluded, and despite having signed through 2026, he was then dropped in favor of Lawson. Now after only the first two races of the 2025 season, Lawson has been demoted back to sister team Racing Bulls in favor of Yuki Tsunoda. These changes in quick succession have created issues for Red Bull.
And it makes it rather obvious that there is regret over not grabbing Sainz when they had the chance.
The most attractive factor of signing Sainz is the fact that they'd have known exactly what they'd be getting. The Spanish driver, having raced for Ferrari from 2021 to 2024, turned himself into one of the best drivers on the grid. At 30 years old, he knows how to handle the pressure and stakes of racing for a top team.
Even if Horner and Marko held their reservations about Sainz from his past years in the organization, that was a decade ago. He has grown tremendously since then, and despite some common beliefs, he would not have been an impeding blockade for Max Verstappen, either.
Turning away from Sainz has effectively reduced Red Bull’s odds of winning the constructor championship, and it has already produced a lack of stability, as indicated with their two quick driver switches just months apart.
The cherry on top would be if Sainz and Williams were to become direct competitors with Red Bull in 2026, especially with the continuous news regarding the strength of the Mercedes engine heading into next year.