Formula 1: Shock Red Bull switch ruled out for Ferrari driver

Back in February, after it was announced that seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton would be leaving Mercedes and joining Ferrari for the 2025 Formula 1 season, Carlos Sainz Jr. immediately became one of the top free agents, if not the top overall free agent, on the market.

He was immediately linked to Red Bull's second seat alongside four-time reigning world champion Max Verstappen, given Sergio Perez's struggles to close out the 2023 season. But Perez started strong in 2024 and signed a contract extension, and Sainz ultimately had to settle for Logan Sargeant's (now Franco Colapinto's) Williams seat.

But now amid an even greater decline in performance, Perez is set to leave Red Bull after the 2024 season, according to trustworthy sources, and the second Red Bull seat has been freed up once again.

Carlos Sainz Jr. still not joining Red Bull

Even before Perez's departure emerged as an impending reality, there were rumors that Red Bull may have had a change in heart about the 34-year-old Mexican amid his continued decline in performance, which has seen him fail to finish a single race in the top five since early May.

While teammate Max Verstappen has an 80-point advantage in the world championship standings with three times as many wins as the next winningest drivers this season, Red Bull sit down in third place in the constructor standings and are eliminated from title contention with Perez only in eighth in points, which is the worst for a champion's teammate in three decades.

Franco Colapinto has done a solid job since taking over for Logan Sargeant at Williams a few months ago, but with Williams' second seat already committed to Sainz for the 2025 season, James Vowles' team may not have anywhere to place the Argentinian for next year.

There were rumors that Colapinto could replace Perez, or at least move to RB to replace Perez's eventual replacement, but cold water was quickly poured on those, particularly amid his recent string of crashes.

But an interesting suggestion was floated that perhaps Williams could work out a deal with Red Bull to have Red Bull bring in Sainz as Perez's replacement, opening up a seat for Colapinto and thus keeping him not only within the Williams family but on the grid for 2025 – and without needing to loan him out elsewhere.

That, however, will not happen.

Red Bull do appear set to turn to RB to replace Perez next year, with Liam Lawson being seen as the frontrunner over Yuki Tsunoda. Red Bull junior driver Isack Hadjar is expected to fill the vacant RB seat, officially leaving Colapinto without a drive for the 2025 season.

Colapinto was also reportedly considered for Sauber's second seat alongside Nico Hulkenberg, but that seat ultimately went to Gabriel Bortoleto, who leads the Formula 2 championship standings by 0.5 points over Hadjar with only this weekend's races in Abu Dhabi remaining on the 2024 calendar.

Once Red Bull and RB officially confirm their rosters for next year, the 2025 Formula 1 driver lineup should be completely set, barring any unforeseen changes. The season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, March 16 with the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park Circuit. ESPN's broadcast schedule for the 2025 season has not yet been solidified.